One of the world's foremost analysts of North Korea's ballistic missile programs says reports of missile engine testing at a newly revealed facility appear credible. North Korea is apparently able to test its missiles under more realistic conditions than ever.
世界上研究北韩问题的一位最著名的分析人士认为，有关北韩在一个新披露出来的设施里试验导弹引擎的报道看起来是可信的。北韩显然获得了在比以前更现实的条件下试验导弹的能力。
South Korean media have been reporting this week, indications North Korea may have tested engines for some of its largest and longest-range missiles earlier this year.
韩国媒体本星期一直报道说，有迹象显示，北韩今年早些时候可能试验了一些北韩最大型和最远程的导弹的引擎。
Joseph Bermudez is a senior analyst with the Jane's group of defense and intelligence publications. He says the test would be consistent with North Korea's decades-old missile development program.
约瑟夫.贝穆德斯是简氏防务周刊的高级分析员。他说，这些试验和北韩几十年的导弹开发计划相符合。
"North Korea has routinely conducted ballistic missile engine, space launch vehicle engine, testing for the past 10-15 years. It would not be unusual that they would do that now," he said.
“过去10到15年里，北韩一直定期试验弹道导弹引擎和太空发射器引擎。他们现在做的事并非不同寻常。”
The tests are suspected to have taken place at a facility Bermudez took the lead in making public this week. A report published by Jane's Defence Weekly features satellite photographs of a 10-story missile tower and launch pad, located in a Southwestern region of North Korea. Bermudez says North Korea probably began building it about eight years ago.
据信这些试验可能是在贝穆德斯本星期最先透露的一个设施内进行的。简氏防务周刊发表的一篇报告里包含有一座10层楼高的导弹发射架的卫星照片，位于北韩西南地区。贝穆德斯说，北韩很可能是大约8年前开始建造这个设施的。
"The North Korean missile and space launch facility near Pongdong-ni is the most advanced North Korean launch facility to date," he said.
他说：“浦洞里附近的导弹和太空发射设施是北韩目前最先进的发射设施。”
Bermudez says North Korea has usually tested missile engines by separating them from the body of the missile that would carry it. He says the new facility may make future tests more realistic.
贝穆德斯说，北韩通常测试导弹引擎的方法是把引擎跟引擎推动的导弹分开测试。他说，新的设施可能使未来的测试变得更现实。
"This facility appears that it could actually test the engine while it's in the airframe. What this does, it gives you an additional capability to test how your subsystems will react to the vibrations and possibly heat of the engine," explained Bermudez.
他说：“这个设施似乎可以测试装在导弹上的引擎。它能够增加试验能力，可以测试导弹系统对震动和引擎热度可能升高的反应。”
North Korea has devoted abundant resources and attention to missile development since the 1970s. It is believed to have about 800 missiles, most of them short-range weapons capable of reaching Japan and South Korea. In 2006, Pyongyang tested a long-range missile theoretically capable of reaching the United States, but it failed less than a minute after launch.
1970年代以来，北韩拿出大量资源和精力研发导弹。据信北韩有大约800枚导弹，其中多数是短程导弹，可以打到日本和韩国。2006年，平壤测试了一枚远程导弹，那枚导弹的射程理论上说可以打到美国，但是在发射后不到一分钟就失败了。
That long-range test took place just a few months before North Korea conducted a test explosion of its first nuclear weapon. Bermudez says the nuclear and missile programs are designed to complement each other.
那次远程导弹试验后几个月，北韩进行了第一次核武器试验。贝穆德斯说，北韩的核武器和导弹项目是互相补充的。
"North Korea wants nuclear weapons, and it wants to mount those... on its ballistic missiles," he said.
他说：“北韩想获得核武器，它也想把核武器装到弹道导弹上。”
Some security experts believe North Korea may be able to reach the United States with a ballistic missile by about 2012, under the most favorable set of conditions. Mounting a nuclear weapon on a long-range missile and delivering it accurately is a far more complex task. Whether Pyongyang might achieve that remains a matter of speculation.
一些安全专家认为，如果各种条件都能如愿，北韩可能在大约2012年之前获得能够打到美国的弹道导弹。但是把核武器装到远程导弹上，并使这些导弹精确地命中目标，要复杂得多。平壤是否能实现这个目标，仍然只能猜测。 |