中东冲突会走多远？（在线收听）

How Far Will Mideast Conflict Escalate?

Ed Warner

Washington

10 Aug 2001 

The latest suicide bombing in Jerusalem 1)intensifies the violence in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and appears to make peace even more remote. There are increasing fears of a full-scale war that could involve other countries in the region.

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has plans for a stepped-up war, says George Friedman, the chairman of Stratfor, a global intelligence company. He wrote recently that with sufficient 2)provocation, Mr. Sharon will launch a massive attack on the Palestinians and possibly at the same time deal with two other enemies of Israel: Syria and Iraq.

There would be an international 3)outcry over Israel's attack on its neighbors, says Mr. Friedman, but not much more. No power, least of all the United States, would stand in its way.

Steve Yetiv, professor of political science at Old Dominion University in Virginia, says part of this 4)scenario makes sense. "Israeli foreign minister Shimon Peres has impressed upon Sharon the importance of not using force too soon and winning over international opinion. I believe with another major terrorist act, Sharon will put in motion plans that are more definitive in attacking the Palestinian 5)infrastructure," he said.

The entire scenario is 6)plausible, says Naseer Aruri, professor of political science at the University of Massachusetts. He says that by attacking Iraq, Prime Minister Sharon would be acting in the U.S. interest as well as Israel's. "Sharon would be expecting a green light from Washington, knowing that Washington's top 7)priority in the area is Iraq and the fact that it has not really been able to achieve its objective in Iraq. So here comes Israel telling the Pentagon that we can really do it for you, " Mr. Aruri says.

Mr. Aruri says Israel could achieve what has so far 8)eluded U.S. efforts: the 9)overthrow of Saddam Hussein. So, he says, the United States would hardly be in a position to object to Israel's other military actions. But the attack would have its downside. "It would probably 10)mobilize Arab masses that hitherto have not really been moving, and I think it would be 11)destabilizing. There are many people in this country, even in the establishment, who feel that it could be counter-productive in the sense that it would have a very negative impact on American interests in the area," Mr. Aruri said.

Professor Yetiv says this goes too far. He says Israel has its hands full with the Palestinians. It has no illusions about 12)eliminating the well entrenched Iraqi ruler. "If Saddam is going to be overthrown, it is going to have to be an internal operation, probably out of the military with support from some of the elites, and that has simply not come about in the last 15 years. Israel always wants to see Syria and Iraq weakened, but I do not think it is seeing this as a chance to overthrow Saddam," the professor says.

Saddam Hussein, in fact, has been 13)strengthened by the conflict, says Shafeeq Ghabra, director of the Kuwait Information office and professor of political science at Kuwait University. The Iraqi leader's rhetoric 14)resonates with people 15)disturbed by U.S. policy.

To counter this, says Mr. Ghabra, the United States should appear as an honest, 16)neutral broker in a struggle that now consumes the region.

(1)      intensify[In5tensIfaI]vt.加强vi.强化

(2)      provocation[prRvE5keIF(E)n]n.激怒, 刺激, 挑衅, 挑拨

(3)      outcry[5aJtkraI]n.大声疾呼

(4)      scenario[sI5nB:rIEJ]n.想定

(5)      infrastructure[5InfrEstrQktFE(r)]n.下部构造, 基础下部组织

(6)      plausible[5plC:zIb(E)l]adj.似是而非的

(7)      priority[praI5RrItI; (?@) -C:r-]n.先, 前, 优先, 优先权

(8)      elude[I5lu:d]v.躲避

(9)      overthrow[5EJvEWrEJ]n.推翻, 打倒vt.打倒, 推翻, 颠覆

(10)      mobilize[5mEJbIlaIz]v.动员

(11)      destabilize[di:steIbIlaIz]vt.使动摇

(12)      eliminate[I5lImIneIt]vt.排除, 消除v.除去

(13)      strengthen[5streNW(E)n]v.加强, 巩固

(14)      resonate[5rezEneIt]v.(使)共鸣, (使)共振

(15)      disturb[dI5st:b]vt.弄乱, 打扰, 扰乱v.扰乱

(16)      neutral[`njU:trEl]n.中立者, 中立国adj.中立的, 中立国的, 中性的