Warnings of Horn Drought Came Early
非洲之角干旱早有预警
Experts say there was plenty of warning that the Horn of Africa was likely to experience severe drought. Nevertheless, millions of people are now at risk.
专家表示，此前已经做出了足够的预警，非洲之角可能经历严重的干旱。然而，现在仍有数百万人处于危险境地。
Scientific experts have been saying for years that the Horn of Africa was vulnerable. The warning came with recommendations to prevent drought or lessen its effects. But to a large extent, those recommendations remained just that -- recommendations.
几年来，科学专家一直表示非洲之角非常脆弱。提出警告的同时，专家还提出了预防干旱或缓解干旱影响的建议。但是从很大程度上说，建议仅仅是建议，并没有付诸实施。
Regrets
“Like everyone, we are very much moved by the image and news that we are seeing from not only Somalia, but also the whole Horn of Africa,” said Mansour N’Diaye, chief of cabinet at the Secretariat of the UNCCD – the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification. He described what’s happening in the Horn as “an illustration of regret.”
“像每一个人一样，对于我们从索马里乃至整个非洲之角看到的图片和新闻，我们都非常难过。”联合国防治荒漠化公约(UNCCD)秘书处负责人Mansour N'Diaye说。他表示，对于非洲之角发生的一切，只能感到非常遗憾。
“Regret that most of the knowledge that has been accumulated over years, not only from the UNCCD, but also from other relevant international organizations, about drought and how to address the issue of drought. All those. We are unfortunate to say that they are not very much put to the attention of policymakers for them to take preventive measures,” he said.
“很遗憾，多年来，UNCCD和其他相关国际组织积累了关于干旱和怎样应对干旱问题的知识。然而，不幸的是，这些并没有引起政策制定者的注意，他们并没有采取相应的预防措施。”
We warned you
Last January, meteorological experts warned that the Horn of Africa was on the verge of severe drought.
去年1月份，气象专家警告称，非洲之角正处于严重干旱的边缘。
“So no one can say that we didn’t know. It was known, including by policymakers. The fact of the matter is that perhaps priorities were given to something else. And therefore, one has to face the fact that policy failures are here very much at stake,” he said.
“所以，没有人可以说我们提前并不知情。我们都知道所面临的前景，包括政策制定者在内。实际情况是，政策制定者可能将工作的重点放在了其他方面。因此，人们必须面对这样的现实，政策的失败使他们处于危险境地。”
And that wasn’t the first warning. The UNCCD official says a warning was issued as far back as 2007 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
而且这并不是第一次预警。UNCCD官员表示，早在2007年，联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,IPCC)就已经发出过类似的警告。
N’Diaye said, “Go back to the IPCC report. It was clearly stated by scientists that have studied the issue of climate change that for nearly 10 years areas that are prone to drought – and we are talking about areas like those in the Horn of Africa – will experience more frequent droughts and more intense droughts of a much wider distance. And near droughts will emerge where they never existed before. This is in the IPCC report.”
N'Diaye说，“让我们回顾一下2007年IPCC的报告。科学家在这份报告中明确表示，他们已经对易于发生干旱的地区的气候变化状况进行了接近十年的研究——我们说的是非洲之角那样的地方——那些地方会经历更加频繁，更加严重，影响范围更广的干旱。从来没有发生过的干旱即将来临。这就是IPCC报告所说的。”
Has time run out?
Now that drought has firmly taken hold in the Horn of Africa, with famine in parts of Somalia, is it too late to act?
现在，干旱已经严密控制着非洲之角，索马里的部分地区已经宣布进入饥荒状态，那么，现在采取行动是否为时过晚呢？
“We cannot say that it’s too late,” he said, “because we have the knowledge as to what is it that one should do to better manage land, including in the dry lands. And therefore the UNCCD is there to facilitate, particularly in countries like those in Africa, precisely the implementation of their action programs to combat desertification.”
“我们不能说已经太迟了。因为我们关于如何更好的管理土地有着丰富的知识。因此，UNCCD已经前往现场督促工作的实施，尤其是非洲国家，积极实施相关项目来应对荒漠化。”
N’Diaye said lands affected by desertification can be reclaimed. If they were fertile once, they can be again.
N'Diaye表示，受荒漠化影响的土地是可以开拓的。如果这些土地曾经是肥沃的，以后也可以再次肥沃起来。
“It takes time,” he said, “but it is time which is valued to be invested in. Because in the end, what is at stake is precisely to improve the livelihoods of those inhabitants from the dry lands, like those in the Horn of Africa.
“这需要时间。但是投入这些时间是有价值的。因为最终，最重要的是怎样改变干旱地区，例如非洲之角的居民的生计。”
That investment, he says, requires political will.
他说，这种投资需要政治意愿。
Recommendations for dealing with the drought include a political solution to Somalia’s conflict. Also, U.N. Convention to Combat Desertification experts and others call for greater investment in smallholder farms, empowering community-based organizations to manage the land, addressing land ownership and land degradation issues, and rolling out comprehensive national action plans on drought prevention.
应对干旱问题的建议包括解决索马里冲突的政治方案。联合国防治荒漠化公约专家和其他人员呼吁对小型农户进行更大的投资，赋予社区组织管理土地的权利，解决土地所有权和土地退化的问题，制定防止干旱的全国性计划。
In November, talks will be held in Casablanca on creating better ways to share drought information. The meeting is being organized by the UNCCD, the World Meteorological Organization, the U.S. National Integrated Drought Information System and Morocco’s national meteorological service.
11月份，卡萨布兰卡将召开怎样更好的分享干旱信息的会谈。这次会议由UNCCD，联合国气象组织，国家集成干旱信息系统和摩洛哥国家气象部门联合组织。 |