团购中的“羊群效应”（打印版）

We might like to think we're not influenced by other people, but a new study into the group-buying mechanisms - like those used on coupon sites such as Groupon and LivingSocial - reveals that telling buyers who come later to the offer how many have already signed up increases the number of purchasers。

　　Researchers at the University of Toronto's Rotman School of Management wanted to understand why group buying sites that have entered the market recently have enjoyed greater success than those operating a decade ago, such as Mercata and MobShop。

　　Earlier attempts typically left potential buyers waiting for days before confirming whether or not they had got the offer they had signed up for。

　　‘We think one of the reasons group-buying has been successful recently is because of the short time horizon,’ says Rotman Professor Ming Hu, who co-wrote the study with Professor Mengze Shi and PhD student Jiahua Wu. ‘It allows for a herding effect.’

　　Another reason is the use of an information structure that discloses to later arrivals how many have already signed onto the deal。

　　Researchers looked at two ways of designing the purchasing mechanism for a group buy: a simultaneous mechanism, where no one knows how many buyers have come before them, and a sequential mechanism, where a second group of buyers has the advantage of knowing the size of the first group。

　　The researchers' analytical model shows the most successful mechanism is the sequential one because it eliminates uncertainty for those coming later to the deal, and improves the confidence of those who sign on early, as they're able to track the numbers of those who come after them。

　　‘That boosts confidence,’ says Professor Hu, who teaches operations management. Deals for “luxury” services, versus everyday items, work better in a group buy scenario because they offer consumers a greater benefit。

　　我们也许认为我们不会受到他人的影响，但一项针对团购机制(正如Groupon和LivingSocial等团购网站的机制一样)的研究表明，告诉后来的买家已经有多少人报名参加能够增加购买者的人数。

　　多伦多大学罗特曼管理学院的研究人员想要知道为什么近期进入市场的团购网站比十年前的Mercata和MobShop等团购网站经营更成功。

　　团购网站过去总是让潜在的买家在报名后等上好多天，才能确认是否能享受到折扣品。

　　罗特曼商学院的教授胡明(音)说：“我们认为近期团购网站成功的原因之一是较短的时限。这就出现了羊群效应。”他和石梦泽(音)教授以及博士生吴嘉华(音)共同撰写了该研究报告。

　　另一个原因是使用了一种信息结构，让后来者看到已经有多少人下单购买。

　　研究人员研究了设计团购机制的两种方式，一种是同步机制，没人知道之前有多少人来过；另一种是顺序机制，第二拨买主能够知晓第一拨买主的规模。

　　研究人员的分析模型显示，第二种机制最成功，因为这为后来的买家消除了不确定性，并增进了先前买家的信心，因为他们也可以看到随后买家的数量。

　　胡教授说：“这增进了自信。”他教授运营管理课程。与日常商品相比，“奢华”服务类商品团购效果更好，因为消费者能得到更大实惠。

团购中的“羊群效应”（在线收听）