VOA慢速英语2012 IN THE NEWS - American Intelligence Report Predicts China will be World’s Leading Economic Power by 2030（在线收听）

IN THE NEWS - American Intelligence Report Predicts China will be World’s Leading Economic Power by 2030

时事新闻 - 美国情报机构预测2030年中国将成为全球最大经济体

From VOA Learning English, this is IN THE NEWS in Special English.

这里是美国之音慢速英语时事新闻报道。

A new American intelligence report this week predicted Asia’s economic power rising in the coming years. The report says that by the year 2030, the United States will no longer be the superpower it is today. It says that no nation will have that kind of influence, with power instead redirected to coalitions between countries.

本周，美国一份新的情报报告预测未来几年亚洲经济实力会提高。报告称，到2030年，美国将不再是今天这样的超级大国。随着实力重定向至国家之间的联盟，将不会有任何国家拥有美国这样的影响力。

The report comes from the National Intelligence Council of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. The document was researched and written by experts from outside the government. They say the findings are meant to help policymakers in their long-term planning on major issues. 

该报告来自于美国国家情报总监办公室下属的国家情报委员会。该文件由来自政府以外的专家研究撰写。他们声称，这一研究结果是为了在重大问题的长期规划上帮助决策者。

The report says the world will look different by 2030. The economy in Asia will be larger than that of North America and Europe combined. China will have the largest economy in the world. And the Chinese economy will be 140 percent greater than Japan’s economy. 

报告说，到2030年世界将会发生翻天覆地的变化。亚洲经济将超过北美和欧洲的总和。中国将成为全球最大经济体。而且中国经济将高出日本经济140%以上。

Some observers say China needs to take steps before it can become the world’s biggest economy. Patrick Chovanec is with Tsinghua University’s School of Economics and Management in Beijing. He believes that several things could affect the country’s economic growth. 

一些观察家表示，中国需要采取措施才可能成为全球最大经济体。帕特里克·霍瓦内茨（Patrick Chovanec）就职于清华大学经济管理学院。他认为一些问题可能会影响中国的经济增长。

“China’s growth is extremely resource dependent and those resources are becoming scarcer and scarcer. In particular, water, in northern China, there is a growing scarcity of water, and that along with other resource constraints might limit China’s prospects of going forward.” 

“中国的经济增长非常依赖资源，而这些资源正日益稀缺。特别是水，在中国北方，水越来越稀缺。它和其它资源制约一道，可能会限制中国的发展前景。”

Patrick Chovanec says the average age in China is rising because of the country’s one-child policy. He says there are concerns China will grow old before it is wealthy enough to support its growing population. 

霍瓦内茨说，由于中国的一胎化政策，该国平均年龄正在上升。他说，有人担心，中国在富裕到足以支撑其不断增长的人口之前老去（即人口老龄化）。

The new report also says the world economy will be more dependent on the health of developing countries, instead of the West. It says there will be a higher demand on resources as the world’s population expands from seven-point-one billion today to eight billion people.

这份新报告还说，世界经济将更加依赖发展中国家的健康而不是西方国家。报告说，随着全球人口从今天的71亿扩大到80亿，世界对资源将会有更高的要求。

The report says nearly half of the population will live in areas with severe water issues. It says limited water resources and farmland could increase the risk of conflict in parts of Africa, the Middle East and South Asia.

该报告称，近一半人口将生活在水资源问题严峻的地区。它说，有限的水资源和耕地可能会增加非洲、中东和南亚部分地区冲突的风险。

Experts are predicting that the United States could become more active in settling disputes in the future. As a mediator, America could work to prevent what the report calls violence created from insecurity in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Robert Kagan is with the Brookings Institution in Washington.

专家们预测，未来美国在解决争端方面会更得更加活跃。作为一个调停者，美国可以做些工作来防止该报告所说的东南亚和中东不稳定引发的暴力行为。罗伯特·卡根（Robert Kagan）就职于华盛顿布鲁金斯学会。

"What the world is looking for from the United States - and it’s not the world - individual states look for protection, they look - in some cases - for the ability to organize. I mean if you take the Syria issue which is before us right now, what people are waiting for is for the United States to step up and start pulling everyone together. And what's been missing has been the United States playing that role."

“世界需要从美国寻求什么？个别国家需要寻求安全。在某些情况下，它们寻求组织能力。我的意思是，如果你将叙利亚问题摆到我们面前，人们都在期待美国走向前将所有人组织起来。现在缺失的就是美国扮演这一角色。”

The writers of the report say their findings are not meant to predict the future, but instead provide a framework for thinking about possible futures. The report adds that the best world possible would exist if the United States and China work together and lead international cooperation.

报告撰写者表示，他们的研究结果并不是预测未来，而是提供一个考虑未来可能的框架。该报告还指出，只有中美共同努力并引领国际合作，才会有最好的世界。