VOA常速英语2014--'Friends of Syria' to Meet in Paris Sunday 叙利亚之友日内瓦和谈前巴黎会晤（在线收听）

'Friends of Syria' to Meet in Paris Sunday 叙利亚之友日内瓦和谈前巴黎会晤

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry meets in Paris Sunday with foreign ministers of countries who back opponents of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. They are trying to bridge serious differences within the opposition ahead of Syrian peace talks planned for Geneva later this month. But Syrian divisions are complicating efforts to come up with a transitional government to end the war.

美国国务卿克里计划星期日在巴黎会晤支持叙利亚反对派的各国外长。各方争取在日内瓦叙利亚和平会谈于本月开始之前，弥合叙利亚反对派阵营内部的分歧。反对派试图推翻总统巴沙尔·阿萨德的统治，但是他们的内部分歧为组建过渡政府以结束内战的努力增加了难度。

Iraqi forces fighting back against Al-Qaida-affiliated militia show how far Syria's internal divisions have spread.

在邻国伊拉克，政府军正在反击与基地组织有联系的激进分子，这显示出叙利亚内部冲突的扩散范围。

Assad loyalists control the capital Damascus and ethnic-Alawite areas along the Mediterranean as well as parts of central Syria in their fight against largely-Sunni rebels there -- while continuing to battle Kurdish fighters in the north and Druze militia in the south. 

忠于阿萨德的部队控制着首都大马士革以及地中海沿岸以阿拉维族群为主的地段以及叙利亚中部部分地区。反政府武装主要由逊尼派组成。同时，北方的库尔德武装和南方的德鲁兹民兵也在同叙利亚政府军交战。

Cato Institute analyst Doug Bandow says if no transitional government emerges from this month's Geneva talks, Syria may end up a more-permanently divided nation.

卡托研究所的分析人士道格·班多说，如果本月的日内瓦会谈无法形成过渡政府，叙利亚最后可能四分五裂。

"I think one alternative, and it might be the best alternative is essentially the regime controls kind of a coastal area, a more Alawite area. And then there's a rebel area, and there's a Kurdish area. That might be the best you can get. Otherwise I think it's a fight to the finish," Bandow said.

他说：“我认为其中一个、而且可能是最好的选项基本上是由现政权控制一处沿海地区。然后呢，还有反政府武装控制区，另外还有库尔德地区。这可能是你能得到的最好的结果了。否则，我认为，大家会一直斗到死。”

Some of the fiercest fighting is within the opposition itself -- between the main rebel Free Syrian Army and more extremist militias, some of whom are affiliated with al-Qaida. There are even divisions within those more extremist elements. So much so that the head of the powerful al-Nusra Front is calling for a cease-fire with a group known as the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant. But there is no keeping Syria together without strong central authority, says former U.S. ambassador Adam Ereli.

一些最激烈的战斗发生在反对派阵营内部，也就是主要反政府武装“自由叙利亚军”与更为极端的民兵之间的冲突。有些极端分子与基地组织有关联。那些极端势力内部甚至也有分歧，比如，势力强大的“胜利阵线”(al-Nusra Front)的首领就呼吁与“伊拉克与大叙利亚伊斯兰国”组织(the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant)停火。不过，前美国大使亚当·埃雷利说，没有一个强有力的中央权威，叙利亚无法凝聚到一起。

"Syria, I think the ethnic divisions are less along geographic lines with the exception largely of the Alawite and the Druze. But if you don't have responsible central government, those areas will split off," he said.

他说：“我认为，叙利亚的族群隔阂的地理界线相对不是那么重要，例外情况主要是阿拉维和德鲁兹地区。但是，如果没有一个负责任的中央政府，那些地区将会分裂出去。”

A Balkanized Syria may be less troubling than current trends toward a broader breakdown, says U.S. Institute of Peace analyst Steve Heydemann, because the division of the former Yugoslavia remained largely within its international borders. 

美国和平研究所分析人士史蒂夫·海德曼认为，如果叙利亚像巴尔干那样以族群分治，相比目前范围更大的分裂趋势而言，也许带来的麻烦要少一些，因为前南斯拉夫的分裂毕竟基本保持在原有国境之内。

"I think the expectation was we could see a similar outcome in Syria -- that we would experience a process of partition, of Balkanization but it would not produce a cascade of state collapse across the Arab Levant. Now, I don't think we can be so confident about that," Heydemann said.

他说：“我认为，我们本来可能在叙利亚看到类似的预期结果：会有分离过程，变得巴尔干化，但是不会造成阿拉伯大叙利亚区一系列的国家崩溃。可如今呢，能不能形成这种局面，我觉得我们已经没信心了。”

Syrians themselves see the division of their country as an affront to national pride, says American University professor Akbar Ahmed. 

美利坚大学教授阿克巴尔·艾哈迈德说，对叙利亚人来说，国家分离是对民族自尊的羞辱。

"They don't want their country broken up because there's still the desire, the nationalism, the romance of holding on to the larger and not breaking away to the smaller unless things become so bad that you can not hold on," he said.

他说：“他们不想让国家分裂，因为人们仍然怀着那种民族主义的愿望，那种浪漫的想法，除非局势太恶劣，实在坚持不住了，人们还是希望能再坚持得久一些，不要让国家四分五裂。”

Divisions within the political opposition weaken prospects for peace talks as foreign ministers work to get a broader, more representative opposition delegation to meet with Assad officials.

目前，“叙利亚之友”各国外长正努力促成一个更广泛、更具有代表性的反对派代表团，跟阿萨德政府官员会面，然而，政治反对派内部的分歧削弱了和平会谈的前景。