财富精英励志演讲 第140期:未来的路(15)（在线收听） |
The Chinese economy is of course much smaller than the United States; with a smaller motor, the world economy is likely to move forward at a slower pace. But within these limits a tectonic shift is taking place between the United States and China with third parties reorienting themselves to the source of positive impulses. The shift may not be permanent or irreversible, but at the present moment, it constitutes the most predictable and significant trend in the global political economy and China is pulling its trading partners like Brazil and some African and Asian counties along with it. India is also doing well based on domestic growth. 中国的经济总量显然要比美国小得多；马达变小了，世界经济发展可能会放慢步伐。 但是，由于这些限制，美国与中国之间正在发生结构性的变化，别的国家也在重新调整自己的方向以找到发展的原动力。这个变化也许不会是永久的或不可逆转的，但在目前，这是全球政治经济可预测和显著的趋势。中国正在带动像巴西这样的贸易伙伴和一些非洲、亚洲的国家向前发展。印度立足于国内，经济增长势头良好。
The success of Chinese economic policy cannot be taken for granted. The infrastructure investment in the Chinese hinterland may or may not generate self-sustaining economic growth. Under the Chinese system, the return on new investments is generally very low because investment decisions are dictated by political rather than commercial considerations. On the previous two occasions, the relaxation of bank credit produced a spate of bad loans.
我们也不能想当然地认为中国经济政策必定会成功。在中国内地，政府对基础设施的投资会不会使经济保持自我持续的增长还是个未知数。在中国的体制下，因为投资决策是出于政治而非商业考虑，所以新投资的回报率通常很低。前两次银行信贷的宽松导致了大批不良贷款。 |
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