欧洲能源

　　The gasman cutteth

　　煤气工人面临裁员

　　Europe could survive a cut-off of Russian gas, but only a short one

　　短期内欧洲有能力应对俄罗斯天然气供应的中断，但也仅限于短期内

　　NAPOLEON and Hitler both succumbed to the bitter Russian winter in their efforts at territorial expansion in Europe. Now, Vladimir Putin seems to be exporting a bit of Russian chill as part of his strategy to shift Europe's borders in his favour. In recent days there have been ill-explained reductions in the flow of gas that Gazprom, a Russian state firm, supplies to Poland, Austria and Slovakia—possibly to warn them off re-exporting any of it to Ukraine.

　　拿破仑和希特勒在拓宽欧洲疆土的战争中都败给了俄罗斯冷瑟的冬天。现在，弗拉基米尔·普京似乎又在利用俄罗斯寒冷的天气来控制欧洲疆土的。近日，俄罗斯过硬能源业巨头俄罗斯天然气公司莫名地削减了其对波兰、奥地利和斯洛伐克的天然气供应量，也许是在警告欧洲国家禁止向乌克兰再出口天然气。

　　欧洲能源.jpg

　　Russia provides one-third of the gas that other European countries rely on to heat their homes, generate electricity and feed industry. So far the assumption among western European governments and industrial gas users is that even if relations with Russia worsen further, there is little danger of a complete and long-term cut in supplies, since Russia's government is so dependent on the revenues from gas exports.

　　欧洲国家依赖天然气供暖、发电、为工厂提供能源，这些天然气有1/3是由俄罗斯提供的。目前，西欧各国的政府和工业燃气商推测认为，即使欧洲和俄罗斯的关系进一步恶化，长期的彻底停气的可能性也是很小的，因为俄罗斯很需要燃气出口带来的收入。

　　However, a short-term interruption in the coming months, as winter descends, is not so unthinkable. Fortunately, most European countries would be able to struggle through. Their gas-storage facilities are about 90% full, since last winter was mild and they did a bit of further topping-up over the summer. Last year Europe imported 155 billion cubic metres (bcm) of Russian gas; stocks currently stand at 75bcm. So European energy distributors would have a few months' grace to find alternative supplies.

　　然而，在未来几个月的冬天里出现一个短期的供气中断是完全有可能的。好在欧洲有能力平稳度过一个短暂的停气期。由于去年冬天比较温和，同时欧洲在今年夏天又进一步增加了储气量，现在储气设备的储气量大概已达到90%。去年，欧洲向俄罗斯进口了1550亿立方米天然气，到现在为止的剩余存量还有750亿立方米。所以欧洲的能源经销商在未来几个月内有充足的时间去寻找替代供应源。

　　Norway, a big producer, could pump a bit more. China's slowing economy and Japan's reopening of some nuclear plants will mean more liquefied natural gas (LNG) is available on spot markets, though it is costly. Europe has the capacity to import more than 200bcm of LNG a year, of which just 20% is in use. Contingency plans being drawn up by the EU are also said to include cutting gas to industry to preserve supplies for heating homes and generating power.

　　挪威盛产天然气，它可以适量增加对欧盟的供应量。中国的经济增长放缓，日本核工厂开始重建，这些因素都会使得现货市场上天然气的供应量增加，虽然不是免费的。欧洲每年最多可以进口超过2000亿立方米液化天然气，但是其中只有20%投入使用。据说，欧盟制定的应急计划还包这样一项：为了保障家用暖气和电力的正常供应，会削减工业燃气的供应量。

　　Half of Europe's imports of gas come down pipes that traverse Ukraine, and Russia has cut their flow several times since 2006 over price disputes with the Ukrainians. If it did so again, it might pump more gas down pipelines that bypass Ukraine. Trouble is, these do not reach those countries most dependent on Russian gas, such as Hungary, Bulgaria, the Baltic states and Finland. The Finnish coalition government is at risk of falling because the Green party is threatening to quit over plans to buy a Russian nuclear reactor, which it says would increase, not reduce, dependence on Russia.

　　欧洲的进口的天然气有一半是从横穿乌克兰的管道输入的，自2006年乌俄就天然气价格发生争执以来，俄罗斯曾多次中断过这条管道的天然气流。如果这次俄罗斯手段照旧，那么它应该会增加其他绕行乌克兰的管道的天然气流量。但是问题是，这些扰心管道并不能到达那些最依赖俄罗斯供气的国家，如匈牙利、保加利亚、波罗的海诸国和芬兰。芬兰联合政府正面临着垮台的危险，因为绿党威胁要撤销购买俄罗斯核反应站的计划，他们认为这个计划会加重而不是减轻芬兰对俄罗斯的依赖。

　　EU countries are making some preparations for short-term cut-offs but almost nothing has been done to reduce long-term reliance on Russia. There is much that could be done: governments could encourage the building of more cross-border pipelines to connect customers to sources of supply, including the underused LNG import terminals; more storage capacity could be provided; and those countries with shale reserves could get fracking. So far all that has been produced is hot air, and not the useful kind.

　　欧盟国家正在为短期供气中断做准备，但是目前并没有采取任何措施来减轻欧盟对俄罗斯的长期依赖。其实有很多可以做的：政府可以鼓励开通更多的跨境管道，开发利用率不高的液化天然气进口港，从而连接资源的供应方和需求方；增大天然气贮备能力；页岩储量丰富的国家可以加工油页岩以开发能源。目前为止，欧洲所做的仅仅是夸夸其谈，而并无实事。