唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)实质上锁定了美国共和党总统候选人提名的消息，令我回想起了2002年的欧洲。当时，极右翼候选人让-马里?勒庞(Jean-Marie Le Pen)在法国总统选举中一路杀入最后的两人对决，引起巨大震动。还记得在勒庞在第一轮投票中取得成功后的那天早上，我去布鲁塞尔的欧盟新闻中心，见证了我的法国同行的恐惧和羞耻。

The good news is that Mr Le Pen was soundlybeaten in the final round. The bad news is that, in retrospect, hisbreakthrough marked a turning point in European politics.

好消息是勒庞在最终一轮投票中大败。坏消息则是，回想起来，他所取得的突破标志着欧洲政治的转折点。

Ever since 2002, the themes that Mr Le Penchampioned —nationalism, a hatred of immigration, denunciation of “unpatriotic”elites,fear of Islam, rejection of the EU, protectionism —have grownin strength in Europe.

自2002年以来，民族主义、对移民的憎恨、对“不爱国”精英的谴责、对伊斯兰的恐惧、对欧盟的抵制、保护主义，这些勒庞一力倡导的主题思想，在欧洲日益发展壮大。

The far right has not yet formed agovernment in western Europe. But it has changed the debate and forcedmainstream politicians to embrace some of their themes.

极右翼目前还未在西欧哪国组建政府。不过，它已经改变了政治辩论，迫使主流政客接受他们的部分主题思想。

I fear that the same thing will happen withMr Trump. The odds are that the “Republican” (if that is what he is) will loseto Hillary Clinton in November. But the Trump campaign has already changed USand world politics — and it will make an even deeper imprint in the next sixmonths of campaigning.

我担心特朗普身上会发生同样的事情。11月，这位“共和党人”（如果他算是的话）很可能会输给希拉里?克林顿(Hillary Clinton)。然而，特朗普的竞选已经改变了美国和全球政治，而且他会在今后六个月的选战中打下更深的烙印。

Themes and ideas that were on the fringeshave now entered the political mainstream, and they will not disappear if andwhen Mr Trump loses.

曾经的边缘主题思想和理念如今已进入政治主流。就算特朗普输掉选举，它们也不会消失。

What are those ideas? I would highlightfive. First, a rejection of globalisation and free trade. This, of course, is atheme that Mr Trump shares with Bernie Sanders on the left of the Democraticparty. Its influence can already be seen in the way in which Mrs Clinton hasbacked away from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade deal that she oncechampioned.

那么，这些主题思想是什么呢？我会重点强调五点。首先是对全球化和自由贸易的抵制。当然，特朗普和民主党左翼的伯尼?桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)都提出了这个竞选主题。它的影响，从希拉里不再支持《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(Trans-Pacific Partnership, TPP)就可见一斑——她曾大力支持这份贸易协定。

The second theme is nationalism, epitomisedby Mr Trump’s slogan of “America First”. In Europe, nationalism implies arejection of the EU. But the global implications of American nationalism aremuch more serious since the US underpins the whole international securitysystem and issues the world’s reserve currency, the dollar.

第二个主题则是民族主义，特朗普“美国优先”的口号就是个缩影。在欧洲，民族主义意味着对欧盟的抵制。然而，美国的民族主义对全球的影响要严重得多，因为美国支撑着整个国际安全体系，并发行着全球储备货币——美元。

A third idea is the embrace of the notionof a “clash of civilisations” between the west and Islam. Even as PresidentGeorge W Bush launched a “war on terror” in 2001, he rejected the idea that theUS is at war with Islam itself. Mr Trump, with his talk of temporarily banningall Muslims from entering the US, has essentially embraced the idea ofinevitable conflict between the west and the Islamic world.

第三个主题，是接受西方与伊斯兰世界之间存在“文明冲突”的观点。即使是在乔治?W?布什(George W. Bush)总统2001年发动“反恐战争”时，他也抵制住了美国在与伊斯兰世界交战的看法。而特朗普提出的暂时禁止所有穆斯林进入美国，实质上是接纳了西方与伊斯兰世界不可避免发生冲突的观点。

A fourth theme is a relentless assault onthe “elite”, including Washington, Wall Street and the universities. A populistdistrust of elites as been a perennial theme in US politics for decades, if notcenturies. But growing inequality, immigration and the financial crisis havedriven anti-elite rhetoric to new levels. As a New York billionaire, Mr Trumpis an unlikely tribune of the common man. But he has played the cardeffectively during the campaign.

第四个主题是对包括华盛顿、华尔街和美国各大学在内的“精英人士”的猛烈抨击。民粹主义对精英的不信任成为美国的长期政治主题就算没有几百年，也有几十年的历史。然而，社会不平等的日益加剧、外来移民以及金融危机，已经把反精英的言论推到了新高度。作为纽约的亿万富翁，特朗普不太可能是普通民众的守护者。然而他在选战期间却十分有效地打了这张牌。

A fifth and related trend is thedenunciation of the mainstream media as untrustworthy and an embrace ofalternative, conspiratorial narratives that are flourishing on the internet. MrTrump, for example, has promoted the baseless idea that President Barack Obamawas not born in the US. This embrace of conspiracy theories is pernicious fordemocracy, which requires some agreement on basic facts as the foundation fordebate.

第五个主题及与此有关的趋势，是对主流媒体不值得信任的谴责，以及对互联网上盛行的另类阴谋论叙事的接纳。比如，特朗普一直在宣传巴拉克?奥巴马(Barack Obama)总统并非出生在美国的毫无根据的观点。这种对阴谋论的接纳对民主极为有害，因为民主需要在一定程度上对基本事实的共识，作为辩论的基础。

Variants of these five trends are alsoflourishing on the far right in Europe. The governments of Poland and Hungaryare in the hands of parties that preach a Trumpian mix of nationalism, fear ofIslam, distrust of the “liberal” media and anti-globalism. In France, Mr Le Pen’s daughter,Marine, is likely to make it to the final round of the presidential election in2017.

上述五种趋势的变体在欧洲极右翼人士中也十分盛行。执掌波兰政府和匈牙利政府的党派，正在鼓吹混合了民族主义、对伊斯兰的恐惧、对“自由派”媒体的不信任和反全球化的特朗普式理念。在法国，勒庞的女儿马琳(Marine)可能会在2017年的总统选举中进入最后一轮。