美国共和党正在举行大会，预计会正式提名唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)作为该党的总统候选人。他将是二战以来首位对美国的全球主义共识说不的总统候选人。人们很难从这一严峻现实中看到积极的一面。然而，这还不是特朗普崛起最令人担忧的地方。最令人不安的是他对美国民主制度健康运行的影响。即便特朗普在11月的大选中失利，释放出的魔鬼也很难再收回瓶中。蠢蠢欲动的煽动者将牢记此道。你可以在大部分时间里诋毁大多数人，同时照样有机会获得“大奖”。

　　Stripped to their essence, US presidential elections are a tug of war between freedom and equity. It is impossible to get a full dose of both. Republicans generally favour liberty over equality and Democrats the reverse. Other people’s dignity is not up for grabs. Mr Trump’s hostile takeover of the Republican party has shredded that equation. Comparisons between Mr Trump and Ronald Reagan are particularly misleading. Mr Trump speaks to that part of people that feels cheated, slighted and humiliated. People who attend his rallies emerge angrier than before. “You walked out of a Reagan rally in a spirit of optimism,” says Stuart Stevens, an adviser to Republican nominee Mitt Romney. “You leave a Trump rally ready for a fight.”

　　就本质而言，美国总统选举是一场自由与公平之间的拉锯战。两个目标不可能同时全面实现。共和党通常偏爱自由胜过平等，而民主党恰好相反。不能拿其他人的尊严做买卖。特朗普对共和党的敌意接管打破了这种平衡。把特朗普与罗纳德·里根(Ronald Reagan)进行类比尤其误导。特朗普的目标受众是那些感觉受到欺骗、轻视和羞辱的人。参加特朗普竞选集会的人在离开会场时比之前更加愤怒。“你带着乐观精神走出里根的竞选集会，”上届共和党总统候选人米特·罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)的顾问斯图尔特·史蒂文斯(Stuart Stevens)说，“离开特朗普的竞选集会时，你只想找茬。”

　　It should be no surprise when violence ensues. Mr Trump has given supporters the green light by saying he would like to punch the protesters himself. This week’s Cleveland convention will test Mr Trump’s self-control on a grander level. For the first time since the 1960s, far-right white supremacist groups will be likely to be patrolling the same streets as black civil rights protesters. Taboo sentiments, such as Holocaust denial, are seeping back into the conversation.

　　所以，暴力接踵而来是不足为奇的。特朗普为支持者大开绿灯，称他很想亲自狠揍异议者。本周在克利夫兰举行的共和党大会将在更大层面上考验特朗普的自我控制。自上世纪60年代以来，极右的白人至上主义者团体很可能将首次与黑人民权抗议者在相同街道上游行。曾被视为禁忌的看法（如否认犹太人大屠杀）正在一点点回到人们的谈话中。

　　It is facile to blame it all on social media. Technology makes it easier for fringe groups to disseminate their prejudices. But it is leaders that validate such demons. Anyone who doubts that should watch how children respond to adult supervision. Then they should read Lord of the Flies.

　　把这一切都归咎于社交媒体未免草率。科技使得边缘群体更易于散播他们的偏见。但让这些偏见具有份量的是领导人。怀疑这一点的任何人，都应该看看孩子们对成年人监督的反应。然后，他们应读一读《蝇王》(Lord of the Flies)。

　　Comparisons between Mr Trump and Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi are far more apt. A leading Italian scholar, Luigi Zingales, recalls an event at which the country’s former prime minister taunted an embarrassed young woman by making repeated schoolboyish puns about orgasms. The shocking part was not Mr Berlusconi’s boorishness but the audience’s wild applause.

　　将特朗普与意大利的西尔维奥?贝卢斯科尼(Silvio Berlusconi)进行类比恰当得多。意大利知名学者路易吉?津加莱斯(Luigi Zingales)回忆起在一场活动上，这位意大利前总理不停地讲“荤段子”来奚落一位陷入窘境的年轻女子。令人震惊的不是贝卢斯科尼的粗鲁行为，而是观众热烈的掌声。

　　“Such approval would have been unimaginable before the rise of Berlusconi,” said Mr Zingales. “There is no way of measuring the degree to which he has debased public life in Italy.” The same applies to the Trump effect. But the quality of Italy’s democracy is largely an Italian affair. Even Britain’s decision to leave the EU is ultimately local. What happens in America shapes the fate of democracy around the world.

　　“贝卢斯科尼崛起之前，这样的赞许简直无法想象，”津加莱斯说，“无法衡量他对意大利公共生活的败坏程度。”特朗普效应也是如此。但意大利民主的质量在很大程度上只是意大利国内事务。就连英国退欧决定的影响最终也是局部的。美国的情况影响着世界各地民主的命运。

　　Mr Trump’s rise is bad news for our system of government on three fronts. First, he has shown you can rise to the top of the world’s most cherished democracy by scapegoating entire categories of people. Whether that is illegal Hispanic immigrants, women he deems unattractive, Muslims of any kind, or African-Americans who get uppity, Mr Trump has profited from other people’s indignity. Apologists for Mr Trump say he is only channelling popular sentiment. In fact, he is licensing its darkest instincts. Alarmists liken today’s crisis of democracy to the 1930s. A more instructive parallel is what followed. No country reflected more deeply about the meaning of constitutional democracy than post-Nazi Germany. The first line of Germany’s 1949 Basic Law is: “Human dignity shall be inviolable.”

　　特朗普的崛起在三个方面对我们的政府体制意味着凶兆。首先，他展示了，你可以通过让整个群体成为替罪羊来登上世界最受珍视的民主制度的最高领导岗位。不论是非法的西语裔移民、他眼中缺乏魅力的女性、任何教派的穆斯林，或是自负的非裔美国人，特朗普受益于对别人的羞辱。特朗普的辩护者称，他只是在引导民意。实际上，他在激发人性中最黑暗的一面。危言耸听者喜欢把当下的民主危机与1930年代相提并论。更有启示的比较对象是1930年代之后发生的事情。没有哪个国家比二战后的德国更深入地反思了宪政民主的意义。德国1949年制定的《基本法》(Basic Law)的第一章第一条即为：“人的尊严不可侵犯。”

　　Second, he has made post-factual politics respectable. US detractors — call them the “expert class” — quixotically fact-check Mr Trump’s stream of assertions. No, America’s president does not have the authority to order American companies to repatriate overseas plants. No, Mr Trump did not oppose the 2003 Iraq war. Yes, the US maintains a nuclear triad. No, the US Treasury cannot unilaterally rewrite the terms on its debt obligations. And no, America’s constitution does not permit a religious test for citizenship. To pro-democracy forces in places like China, Mr Trump’s immunity from truth is baffling. Eric Li, a leading Chinese venture capitalist, says Mr Trump’s success has undercut liberal reformists in China. “If the people can be so wrong, how can you give them the vote?” he wrote recently in Foreign Affairs.

　　第二，他使得无视事实的政治文化成为常态。美国的批评者——不妨称其为“专家阶层”——唐吉诃德式地核实特朗普的各种断言。不对，美国总统无权下令美国企业将海外工厂迁回国内。不对，特朗普并未反对2003年的伊拉克战争。是的，美国保持着核三位一体（指一国同时具备陆基洲际弹道导弹、潜射弹道导弹和战略轰炸机三种核打击方式的能力——译者注）。不对，美国财政部不能单方面修改其债务契约的条款。不对，美国宪法不允许对公民资格进行宗教测试。对于中国等国的亲民主力量而言，特朗普信口雌黄却照样崛起，令他们困惑。知名华裔风险资本家李世默(Eric Li)表示，特朗普的成功不利于中国的自由派改革者。“如果人民会犯如此大的错，怎么能给他们选票呢？”他最近在《外交》(Foreign Affairs)杂志上写道。

　　Finally, Mr Trump has corroded faith that rules-based societies are self-sustaining. This time it really could be different. The real estate mogul has never encountered a setback where he did not head straight to the nearest court to overturn it. Does anyone believe a defeated Mr Trump would call Hillary Clinton on November 8 to wish her luck? It is easy to forget that democracy is based on adversaries’ respect for the integrity of the system. Mutual trust, not law, is democracy’s strongest glue. Belief in human dignity is what underpins it.

　　最后，特朗普腐蚀了一种信念——即基于规则的社会可以长治久安。这次真的可能会不同。这位房地产大亨每次遇到阻碍，都会径直前往最近的法院试图将其推翻。有人认为被击败的特朗普会在11月8日打电话给希拉里?克林顿(Hillary Clinton)祝她好运吗？很容易被遗忘的是，民主建立在竞争者都尊重体制诚信的基础上。相互信任（而非法律）是民主制度最强的黏合剂，而支撑互信的是对人的尊严的信念。

　　At his nomination in Cleveland this week, Mr Trump will present his opponent as a crook, his critics as losers, his business record as unparalleled, and his invented facts as the gospel. At least 40 per cent of Americans will still vote for him in November. Democracy’s enemies and friends alike may ask: “How many Trumps can the system take?”

　　周二在克利夫兰被正式提名后发表讲话时，特朗普将把他的对手描述为骗子，把他的批评者描述为失败者，他的从商经历无人能及，他虚构的事实是福音。仍会有至少40%的美国人将在11月投票支持特朗普。民主制度的敌人和朋友或许都会问：“这一制度能容纳多少个特朗普？”