2005年NPR美国国家公共电台三月-Jobless with a College Degree: The Number（在线收听）

The US economy continues to recover from the tech bubble burst of 2000. But there're certainly many people still left behind. Long-term unemployment which is defined as being out of work for 27 weeks is at record levels. And within that group,the percentage who earned college degrees is also at historically high levels. Mark Zandi of economy.com. joins us in our studio. Thanks for being with us.

It's good to be with you.

And, just make some review with some of the statistics if you could about those long-term unemployment and college graduates.

Right. If you look at the unemployed. One in five of the unemployed have been unemployed for more than 27 weeks, that's an awfully long time and that's at record levels, even during the depth of previous recessions a decade ago, in the early 80s when unemployment was a lot higher. So this is unusually high. And also ,roughly one in five of the long-term unemployed have a college degree or higher.And that's also very unusual.Usually college grads do much better in the last few years if they have more difficulty.

And what's your analysis of what some of the reasons are that college graduates join in the ranks of the unemployed too?

One key reason is the sectors of the economy that got hit hard in the last several years.You mentioned technology, you know,financial services,well, the two parts of the economy that got hit very hard.They employ/ lots of very skilled highly-educated workers and many of them lost their jobs.And those industries have yet to make their way back.Employment's no longer falling in technology or financial services,but it's not yet risen to any significant degree.

Now I think a lot of people who are among the affected, if we might put it this way, probably have a memory of someone telling them that they should get a college degree and they should probably study this new and enlarging field of computer technology because that way they'd always have a job.

And that's still very very good advice. Even throughout all these difficulties, folks with lesser education have struggled more and struggled significantly. I just give you another statistic.

Yeah.

The unemployment rate for folks with a college degree or more today is 2.4 percent. But those that have less than a high school diploma, haven't gratuaded from high school, their umployment rate is almost 8%. So that advice is still very valid,still very very important.It just, though, highlights the sort of breadth of the economic problems that we've struggled through over the past several years, that it, you know, one of the hallmarks of the last several years is that it touched almost every one regardless of educational attainment.

Does outsourcing in the growth of a global economy have anything to do with it?

Yeah,I think that does play a role. We are now competing on a global stage. Our competitors are increasingly producing goods and services that embody higher skilled and highly educated workers in there for the competition. For our own highly skilled and educated workers, and what that means is we got to continue to educate our grade,our skills and for many of us,going to school once isn't enough, we may have to go back.

But what do you do about the fact there are still people in other nations,some are gonna refer to them as employment venues,who can do the same work for at least at the moment for a lot less?

Well,that is.That's a weight on our economy.Certainly,that's one reason why the job market here has taken so long to dig itself out from the very deep hole that it got itself in. And Fortunately,the folks that are working overseas are starting to earn better incomes and starting to demand their own goods and services and some of those things or things that we produce.In fact, if you look at recent export data.It's been quite strong.Export growth is in the double digits.And that means that we're doing something right.We're being to be able to sell our wares overseas to those same folks that may be perhaps taking some of the jobs from people here.

Let me put you in the position of the guy who says to Benjamin in the graduate plastics?What would you whisper to a 19-year-old these days?

First say, lighting up a little bit.I think 19-year-olds are awfully serious these days, please comparative.When I was 19 year old and, you konw, I think we lose something.But also I say that get as much of education as you can, as quickly as you can.That will serve you very well throughout your working life.And then be prepared to have to go back,go get another degree,change your occupation,learn another skill.Just be prepared for the possibility that what you are learning today at 19 may not be what you are doing when you are 49.

You may have to study something else when you met...

Yeah,you know what, there's lot worse things in lines than that,right, I mean. I'd love to go back to school.To tell you the truth, so,if I have the means to do it.And hopefully,our policy makers will recognize the need for all of us to do that and make it a little bit easier for us to do that.

Mark Zandi ,an economist to the economy.com.Thanks very much.

It was a pleasure.

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