经济学人:英国投票 到底哪里出了错?(2)（在线收听） |
The Tories did best in constituencies that voted heavily for Brexit: in six of their eight new English seats the Leave vote was over 60%. 在进行选区保守党做的最好的，有很多选民支持退欧：在他们的八个新英国座位中，有六个席位的超过60%的投票支持退出。 But Brexit hurt the party in other places. 但英国退欧伤害了这个党派的其他地方。
Excluding Scotland, there is a strong correlation between swings from the Tories to Labour and the vote in the EU referendum. 除苏格兰外，从保守党到工党的摇摆和欧盟公投有着密切的联系。
By our seat-by-seat analysis, Brexit was responsible for about half of the national swing from the Tories to Labour. 我们一个一个来分析，英国退欧导致了一半的全国从保守党到工党的摇摆。
Labour said as little as possible about the subject, allowing it to attract voters from both sides of the referendum divide. 工党尽可能少地谈论这个问题，希望从公投的两个方面吸引选民。
It gained 18 seats in lukewarm Leave constituencies and 13 in areas that voted Remain. 它在冷淡退欧的选区中获得了18个席位，在留欧的地区里获得了13个席位。
All told, of the 28 seats the Tories lost to Labour, perhaps 17 can be explained by some combination of higher turnout, 总而言之，在保守党失去给工党的28个席位中，也许有17个席位可以通过这几个原因来解释：
large populations of young and educated voters, and opposition to a hard Brexit. 更高的投票率、大量的年轻受过教育的投票者以及对于脱欧的反对。
That leaves 11 seats dotted around England where those elements were not sufficient to explain the result. 而剩下的11个席位则遍布英国，这些因素不足以解释结果。
Seven years of austerity under the Tories are likely to have counted; 据估计，保守党时长七年的紧缩政策很可能也是一个原因，
so is Theresa May's dour campaign, which failed to learn from the Scottish independence referendum of 2014 that positive messages matter. 所以，特蕾莎·梅的顽强挣扎并没有从2014年的苏格兰全民公投中取得教训：正能量很重要。
It was nearly very different. 然而结果与大家的预料完全不同。
The Tories lost four seats by 30 votes or fewer. 保守党以30票甚至不足30票而输了四席。
The current distribution of votes means that the number of seats won is more “elastic” relative to vote share than in the past, Mr Curtice notes. Curtice先生指出，根据选票的分布可以看出现在赢得席位的票数比过去更加注重“弹性”相对投票份额。
A 2.5 percentage-point swing from Labour to the Tories would have won them 29 more seats, 从保守党2.5个百分点的跳票至工党使得他们赢得29个席位，
giving them a 51-seat working majority—and turning the narrative of Tory disaster into one of triumph. 这样一来他们就拥有占多数的51个席位——扭转了保守派的灾难故事，反败为胜。 |
| 原文地址：http://www.tingroom.com/lesson/jjxrfyb/zh/417450.html |