科学美国人60秒 SSS NRA会议期间枪击事件下降（在线收听）

To See Gun Injury Drop Hold An NRA Meeting

The annual meeting of the National Rifle Association is coming up in May. It's scheduled for Dallas. And if past events are any guide, gun injuries may actually go down in Texas, during the event."When a convention is held in a person's state, in that year, gun injuries fall." Anupam Jena, an economist and physician at Harvard Medical School

全国步枪协会年会将于5月在达拉斯召开会议。如果过去的枪击事情有任何指导意义的话，那么在仁会议期间，德克萨斯州的枪击事件实际上可能会有所下降。“当一次会议在一个人的状态下举行时，枪支伤害会下降。”哈佛医学院的经济学家和医生Anupam Jena说。

Jena and his team discovered that surprising link by tracking visits to hospitals and emergency rooms for gun injuries during nine years' worth of NRA conventions. And they found the number of people hurt by guns dropped 20 percent during NRA meetings, compared to the same days of the week three weeks before and after the show.

Jena和他的团队在9年的NRA公约中发现，这种令人惊讶的联系，通过追踪到医院和急救室对枪伤人员进行访问。他们发现，在NRA会议期间，枪击事件的受害人数下降了20%，在会议前后三周的一周中的同一天。

There's no definitive causal link here. But the researchers have a few ideas. First, could be, avid gun users are at the show, away from their guns, or shooting them in more supervised situations. And thus unable to injure themselves or others. Or: if some members of a regular shooting group are out of town, maybe the group postpones its meetup the week of the show. Thus avoiding accidents that otherwise might have occurred.

这里没有明确的因果关系。但研究人员有一些想法。首先，这可能是狂热的枪支用户正在参加演出，从而远离了他们的枪支，或者在更受监督的情况下使用枪支， 因而无法伤害自己或他人。或者：如果一些常规拍摄团队的成员不在城里，也许这个团队会在展会的那一周延期举行聚会，从而避免了可能发生的枪击事故。

"It could also be the case that people who own venues where firearms might be used, like firing ranges or hunting grounds, may be likely to attend the conventions. And if those venues are closed, we might expect to see declines in gun use during that period as well."The results are in the New England Journal of Medicine. [Anupam B. Jena and Andrew R. Olenski, Reduction in Firearm Injuries during NRA Annual Conventions]

“也可能出现这样的情况：那些拥有并使用枪支的人(例如射击场或狩猎场)，可能会参加这些会议，如果这些场地关闭了，我们可能会期望，枪支使用期间出现下降，那个时期也是如此。“这项研究结果发表在新英格兰医学杂志上。

The NRA didn't respond to a request for comment in time for this report, but Jena said their objection might be: why would gun injuries decline 20 percent if only a few percent of gun owners actually make it to the show?

NRA没有及时回应本报告的评论请求，但Jena表示，他们的反对意见可能是：为什么枪支伤害只有百分之几的枪主真的参加了展会，为什么枪伤事件会下降20%呢?

"I would assume the 2 percent of people who are gun owners who attend NRA conventions are probably much heavier users of firearms." And—assuming you believe guns are inherently unsafe—people who shoot their guns a lot might also be more prone to injury than those who keep them locked away all year. Which would mean that NRA conventions might protect some gun owners from themselves.

“我会假设，参加NRA公约的枪支持有者中有2%的人，可能是火器的重要持有者重。” 而且假设你认为，枪支不安全的话，那么拥有很多枪支的人，可能比那些一年到头都要封锁枪支的人，更容易受到伤害。这就意味着，NRA公约可能会保护一些枪支持有者。