Biggest Stories in 2002 (1)（在线收听）

Health & Science

In 2002 we’re going to see the same kind of ¹⁾issues that we had in 2001 that were very interesting. In particular at least for us at The Wall Street Journal the area of ²⁾stem ³⁾cell, ⁴⁾embryonic stem cell research and ⁵⁾cloning. On the science side, there’s going to be some major breakthroughs and advances that are very interesting. But what’s most important is to watch what happens out in Congress and the administration, because there’s a lot of ⁶⁾controversy about trying to ⁷⁾ban or restrict that research. The other big area is going to be health care costs which are really exploding way above the rate of ⁸⁾inflation and in particular the cost of ⁹⁾pharmaceuticals. I think some employers as well as states are going to take some very strong actions to try to restrict the spending in that area.

Economics

The big story for Washington for 2002 is going to be the November elections. And while that’s a long way off for the rest of the country, it’s very much on politicians- minds now, especially with both the House and Senate so closely divided and control up for grabs. The ¹⁰⁾jockeying for position heading into those elections is probably what killed the ¹¹⁾stimulus bill in December, and it’s going to affect the whole fight over whether there’s another stimulus bill this year, whether there’s aid for unemployed whether there’s another tax cut, terror insurance, budgets, defense and a whole 1²⁾host of other issues.

Energy

The year 2002 is likely to be one of tremendous ¹³⁾upheaval for the energy industry. Many companies are ¹⁴⁾shedding assets trying to get their balance sheets more in line. And it’s not entirely clear who has the money to be buyers these days for the many power ¹⁵⁾plants and other assets that are going to be put up for sale. One theory is that some of the European ¹⁶⁾utilities may be entering this market in a major way. There’s also a question about whether there’s going to be money available to build new power plants and boost ¹⁷⁾transmission capacity. So it’s likely there could be power supply problems that will become front-page news again when the nation pulls out of the current recession.

Technology

I think 2002 is going to be the year for everything ¹⁸⁾wireless in several respects. But the product that I think is going to set the tone is the Handspring Treo. It is really the first successful combination of a cell phone, an email device, a web device and a genuine Palm organizer. And I think it’s a breakthrough product. I think it will be copied. It is coming out about a week into the new year and there will be a series of new models that have improvements to it all throughout 2002, and other people are going to be ¹⁹⁾scrambling to catch up with this kind of a device.

 Entertainment

I think one thing you’re going to see in the movie business is the audience will be watching for the studios to actually come through with films that ²⁰⁾live up to their marketing campaigns. In 2001, you had a lot of films that opened very big like Planet of the Apes and then ²¹⁾dropped off very quickly. And the reason was the marketing was very intense and got people out. But once the movies got into the marketplace, there was a drop off. And I think even though the film business did very well in 2001, the audience is going to be looking for the material that can ²²⁾sustain their interest a little better in the next year. CE

11、当2002年到来 (1)

健康与科学

在2002年我们将遇到一些有趣的情况，和2001年的差不多。至少我们《华尔街杂志》的工作人员都特别看好干细胞、胚胎干细胞研究及克隆技术这几个领域。科学上将会取得一些非常有趣的重大突破和进步。但最重要的还得要看国会和政府的政策，因为这类研究是否该被禁止或者被严厉限制还备受争议。另一个大突破是医疗保健开销，特别是药物开销的增幅其实远超通货膨胀率。我想有一些雇主还有一些州将会硬性限制这方面的支出。

经济

2002年的另一件重要大事是十一月的华盛顿大选。虽然对普通大众来说谈这为时尚早，但政客们现在已经开始在为此做准备了，尤其是众议院和参议院都势均力敌，旗鼓相当。或许正是选举活动的议席争夺战扼杀了十二月的刺激法案，并会影响到今年是否有另一个刺激法案的提案，也将影响到失业救济、再次减税、恐怖袭击保险、预算、国防等议案。

能源

2002年能源业将有剧变。许多公司都纷纷出售资产，尽量平衡收支。目前还不清楚谁有资金能成为多家将被出售的电厂和其他资产的买主。据说一些欧洲能源公司将会大举进入美国市场。还有一个问题是有没有可用资金建立新电厂并提高输电能力。所以美国极可能会再度面临缺电问题，等摆脱了目前不景气的经济状态后，供电问题将再次引起关注。

科技

我认为2002年将在几方面实现一切无线化。但我觉得能奠定发展路线的产品是这个多功能掌上电脑。它首次成功地把手机、电邮设置和上网功能真正地集为一身，是名副其实的掌上组合。我认为它具有突破性。它将会被模仿。产品大约会在新年后一周推出，2002年全年会不断对它进行改良，其他商家将争相模仿这种产品。

娱乐

我认为电影业的趋势是，观众希望看到的影片质量要真正地相应于它的宣传声势。电影制片公司能够真正地拍摄出来几部和它们所进行的市场宣传相称的影片。在2001年，很多影片开场都声势浩大，比如《人猿星球》，而热潮却冷却得很快。原因是早期做的市场宣传太猛，观众纷纷涌向剧院。而一经上市便人气大跌。所以我觉得尽管电影业在2001年表现不俗，但观众们期盼的是在下一年中看到令他们的兴趣更持久的好片子。CE