不生孩子、不约会：中国迎来“消费降级”时代？

Chen Siqi doesn’t eat out so much anymore. Li Keli cut down on travel and takes her son to a public playground instead. Wang Jiazhi stopped dating. Welcome to China’s “consumption downgrade” culture, a potentially worrisome development for Beijing and the world.

陈思琦不怎么出去吃饭了。利可丽减少了旅游开支，转而带儿子去公共游乐场。王家志不再出去约会了。欢迎了解中国的“消费降级”文化，这一发展对北京和世界来说可能是一个令人担忧的问题。

For years, the conversation in China was about “consumption upgrades.” As the economy took off, China’s middle class — now more than 400 million strong and still growing — decided to spend those bigger paychecks. It traded up from local brands to Nikes, from cheap phones to iPhones, from tea to $5 Starbucks lattes.

多年来，中国讲的都是“消费升级”。随着经济起飞，中国的中产阶级——如今超过4亿人，并且仍在不断增长——决定把自己增加的收入花出去。中产阶级把国产牌子换成了耐克，便宜手机换成了iPhone，茶叶换成了5美元的星巴克拿铁。

Today, China’s economy is slowing, and shopping has slowed with it. The stock market is slumping. China’s currency has lost some of its value. The trade war with President Trump has left many Chinese feeling pessimistic. China’s consumer culture has by no means ground to a halt. But in the streets and on the Chinese internet, the talk is about cutting back in ways big and small.

如今，中国的经济正在放缓，消费也随之降温。股市暴跌。中国的货币贬值。与特朗普总统的贸易战让许多中国人感到悲观。中国的消费文化并没有停止。但在街头和中国的互联网上，人们谈论的是从大大小小各个方面减少开支。

Quit avocado. Ride bikes instead of taxis. Drink beer instead of cocktails — and make sure that beer isn’t craft. Order a medium-size milk tea instead of a large. Give up the gym, and take up dancing in public squares like a grandmother. Some people joke about eating meat instead of tofu, as American tariffs have made imported soybeans more expensive. Perhaps most worrisome for China’s leaders, many young Chinese are increasingly reluctant to have children.

不吃牛油果。骑车而不是打车。喝啤酒，不喝鸡尾酒——而且还不要精酿啤酒。点中杯奶茶，不点大杯。放弃健身房，像大妈那样去跳广场舞。一些人开玩笑说要用吃肉替代豆腐，因为美国关税已经让进口大豆变得更加昂贵。可能对中国领导人来说最为忧心的，就是年轻中国人越来越不愿生孩子。

A Chinese consumption downgrade could be felt around the world. Chinese spenders have been a key driver of their country’s economic growth in recent years. China, in turn, has played a major role in global growth. On paper, the Chinese economy looks strong. Look closer, and the cracks begin to show. Retail sales this year have grown at their slowest pace in more than a decade. Wages in the private sector are growing at their slowest pace since the global financial crisis. The stock market has fallen by one-fifth.

世界各地都能感受到中国的消费降级。近年来，中国的消费者一直是中国经济增长的主要动力。而中国也在全球增长中发挥重要作用。表面上看，中国经济看起来很强劲。仔细看，裂缝开始显现。今年的零售额增长速度为十多年来最缓慢的。私营部门的工资增长速度为自全球金融危机以来最慢。股票市场下跌了五分之一。