2019年经济学人 伊朗伊斯兰革命四十年(3)（在线收听）

Above all, indiscriminate sanctions are likely to strengthen Iran’s hardliners. American pressure gives them excuses for bad behaviour; adventurism abroad becomes self-defence; oligarchic control of the economy is portrayed as a means to bust sanctions; and critics are dismissed as puppets of the Great Satan. If Iran casts off the JCPOA’s nuclear constraints, America and Israel will have to choose between the risk of Iran building a nuclear bomb and the dangers of a bombing campaign to stop it.

最重要的是，不分青红皂白的制裁可能会让伊朗的强硬派有所行动。美国方面的压力让其有了不良行为的借口；对外冒险主义变成了自卫；经济寡头控制被描绘成一种破坏制裁的手段；批评家被斥责为大撒旦的傀儡。如果伊朗摆脱“伊核协议”的核限制，美国和以色列将不得不在伊朗制造核弹的风险和阻止轰炸行动的危险之间做出选择。

America’s apparent efforts to bring down the regime are unappealing to most Iranians, given the bloody chaos they see all around. The mullahs are still willing to shoot opponents; few ordinary Iranians are yet ready to die trying to overthrow them. The best hope for change in Iran may come with the death of Ayatollah Khamenei, who is 79 and in poor health.

鉴于伊朗到处都是血腥的混乱局面，美国推翻伊朗政权的显著努力对大多数伊朗人来说毫无吸引力。毛拉们仍然要射杀反对者；没有几个伊朗平民愿意为推翻毛拉而死。伊朗变革的最大希望可能是79岁的健康情况不佳的阿亚图拉哈·梅内伊去世。

To nudge Iran towards normality, America needs to mix firmness with pragmatism, rather as it did in the cold war with the Soviet Union. This means containing Iran until its people grow weary of their rulers, and negotiating partial deals that limit the risk of outright conflict. America should seek unity with its own democratic allies and attempt to isolate Iran’s revolutionaries from their subjects. It should aim sanctions at hardliners rather than the country as a whole. It should do more to expose the regime’s brutality and corruption, counter its propaganda and increase contacts with Iranian citizens—giving them more visas to visit America, not fewer. And it should offer to talk to Ayatollah Khamenei. To him, America’s outstretched hand may be more Terrifying than its fist.

为推动伊朗步入正轨，美国需将坚定与实用主义相结合，正如与苏联的冷战中所做的那样。这就意味着要容忍伊朗直到伊朗民众厌倦当前统治者，谈判部分能够限制完全冲突风险的协议。美国应寻求与己方民主盟友的团结，并试图将伊朗革命者与其臣民隔离开来。制裁的对象应该是强硬派，而非整个国家。应该做更多的事情来揭露伊朗政权的残暴和腐败，反击其宣传，并增加与伊朗公民的接触——给他们更多去美国的签证，而不是更少。应主动提出与阿亚图拉·哈梅内伊对话。对阿亚图拉·哈梅内伊来说，美国伸出的手可能比拳头更可怕。