2019年经济学人 埃航失事:波音信誉遭到危机(3)（在线收听）

Then comes geopolitics. With their hubs in Seattle and Toulouse, Boeing and Airbus are among the West’s largest exporters and a rare example of an industry in which China cannot compete. It would be depressing, but not impossible, if safety decisions were influenced by trade tensions. Over time, China and India may insist that the duopoly make more aircraft within their borders, to capture more jobs and intellectual property. That could require a restructuring of how both firms manufacture. Rows over aircraft emissions will further complicate the debate.

然后是地缘政治。波音和空客的枢纽位于西雅图和图卢兹，处于西方最大出口商位列，也是中国无法与之竞争的一个罕见行业。如果安全决策受到贸易紧张局势的影响，这将令人沮丧，但并非不可能。随着时间的推移，中国和印度可能会坚持要求这两家双头垄断企业在各自境内制造更多的飞机，以获取更多的就业机会和知识产权。这可能需要对两家公司的生产方式进行重组。有关飞机排放的争吵将使这场辩论进一步复杂化。

Neither Boeing nor Airbus is about to go bust. Any flaw in the MAX 8 will probably be resolved, as battery problems in the 787 Dreamliner were in 2013. Boeing has $12.7bn of cash and bank lines to cushion it from the reputational crisis. Both firms are ultimately backed by governments. In any case, demand for planes will grow. But ahead lie environmental and technological uncertainty, organisational complexity and geopolitical tension. The years of bumper margins may be over.

波音和空客都不会破产。MAX 8的任何缺陷都可能解决，就像2013年787梦幻客机的电池问题一样。波音坐拥127亿美元现金和银行贷款，以防缓冲声誉危机不时之需。这两家公司最终都得到了政府的支持。无论如何，对飞机的需求将会增长。但未来将面临环境和技术不确定性、组织复杂性和地缘政治紧张局势。多年来利润丰厚的时代可能已经结束。