2019年经济学人 中美贸易:根深蒂固 (2)（在线收听）

The Americans argue that such tough enforcement mechanisms are needed, given China's history of failing to keep its promises.

美国认为鉴于中国不守承诺的历史，这种强硬的执行机制是需要的。

They think that only by offering tariff reductions for good behaviour, and threatening new tariffs for backsliding,

他们认为只有通过为良好品行提供关税减低并对毁约威胁实施新关税

can they ensure that the Chinese keep their side of the bargain. But the Americans may have to give some ground, since the Chinese also have grounds for mistrust.

才能确保中国遵守他们的承诺。但是美国人可能需要做出一些让步，因为中国也有理由不信任美国。

One of the reasons Mexican and Canadians agreed to rewrite their trade deal with America last year

去年墨西哥和加拿大同意重写和美国贸易协议的原因之一是

was the prospect of tariffs on steel and aluminium thereby being lifted. Months later, those tariffs are still in place.

希望能以此解除钢铁和铝的关税。数月后，这些关税仍未解除。

Business lobbyists in Washington seem resigned to tariffs being phased out only gradually as agreed-upon milestones are passed.

华盛顿商业说客似乎顺从于只是随着商定里程碑的通过而逐步解除的关税。

Recent evidence on the effects of the Trump administration's tariffs imposed in 2018 suggests that Americans will pay the price.

针对2018年特朗普政府实施关税影响的近期证据表明美国将会付出代价。

A study by Mary Amiti of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Stephen Redding of Princeton University

纽约联邦储备银行的Mary Amiti，普林斯顿大学的Stephen Redding

and David Weinstein of Columbia University found that American importers were swallowing the cost of tariffs by paying higher prices,

以及哥伦比亚大学的David Weinstein的一项研究发现美国进口商正在通过支付更高的价格承担关税成本，

and that they were responding by importing a narrower range of products.

并且通过进口更少种类的产品应对这一问题。

Another study, by Pablo Fajgelbaum and Amit Khandelwal of the National Bureau of Economic Research,

国民经济调查局的Pablo Fajgelbaum和Amit Khandelwal

Pinelopi Goldberg of the World Bank and Patrick Kennedy of the University of California, Berkeley,

世界银行的Pinelopi Goldberg以及伯克利加利福尼亚大学的Patrick Kennedy的另一项研究

found that although some American producers gained from weaker competition from imports,

发现虽然一些美国生产商从进口的较弱竞争中获益，

that was outweighed by losses to consumers and other producers, who had to pay more for inputs.

但消费者和其他需要为投入花费更多钱的生产商的流失抵消了这一优势。

It seems unlikely that the Trump administration will be swayed by this evidence of collateral damage.

特朗普政府似乎不可能为附带损害的证据所动摇。

Indeed, it may see buyers' struggles to adjust to tariffs as evidence that they were too dependent on Chinese exports in the first place.

确实，特朗普政府可能将买家调整关税的努力看做是他们过于依赖中国出口的证据。

Although a deal may see an easing of the tariff regime, from the administration's perspective it has been too successful to abandon altogether.

虽然一份协议可以缓和关税制度，从政府角度来看，关税实施太成功了，所以不能完全放弃。

Americans had better get used to higher prices.

美国人最好适应更高的价格。