2019年经济学人美国经济:空欢喜一场(1)（打印版）

Investors started the year brooding about the risk of an American recession.

年初，投资者就对美国经济衰退的风险忧心忡忡。

Torsten Slok of Deutsche Bank, Germany's biggest lender, says clients around the globe were worried.

德国最大银行德意志银行的Torsten Slok表示全球客户都在担忧。

Financial indicators were flashing red, the stockmarket was weak and yields on low-grade corporate debt had jumped.

金融指标亮红灯，股市疲软并且低评级公司债券的收益率大幅上升。

The Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates in December had been unsurprising, but unwelcome.

12月，美联储加息的决定虽不令人吃惊，但也不受欢迎。

At the end of the year a model from economists at JPMorgan Chase had put the chances of a recession within 12 months,

年底，摩根大通公司经济学家的一个模型将经济衰退的可能性设定在了12个月内，

based on the S&P 500 index and corporate-credit spreads, at 65%. But the mood has now improved.

这一模型是基于标准普尔500指数和公司信贷差计算，这一比例为65%。但这种情绪现在已经改善。

By April 29th JPMorgan's model was putting the chances of a recession at just 15%.

至4月29日，摩根大通的模型认为衰退可能性仅为15%。

"It's eye-popping how quickly the narrative has changed," says Mr Slok.

Slok先生称：“故事变化之快令人瞠目结舌。”

One reason for the improvement in sentiment is the Fed's evolving monetary-policy stance.

投资者信心改善的原因之一就是美联储逐步演化的货币政策立场

In January it turned more doveish, abandoning its plans to raise rates in 2019.

今年1月，美联储变得更加温和，它放弃了2019年加息的计划。

"We don't see any evidence at all of overheating," said Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, on May 1st

5月1日，美联储主席杰罗米·鲍威尔表示，“我们没有看到任何过热的迹象，”

after announcing that the Fed would maintain its patient stance. He also repeated his view that the data do not warrant higher rates.

此前他刚宣布美联储将保持耐心。他还重复了自己的观点—数据不能保证更高的利率。

Investors have been delighted by the Fed's pause. But the timing and extent of their change of mood suggests that is not the full story.

投资者对美联储的暂停感到高兴。但是他们情绪改善的时机和程度表明这不是故事的全部内容。

One possibility is that their previous gloom may have been overblown.

一种可能性是他们之前的悲观情绪被夸大了。

"The market collapse in December was driven by the calendar," says Catherine Mann of Citigroup, a bank, as investors repositioned for tax purposes.

“12月的市场不景气是由日历所驱使的，” 花旗集团的凯瑟琳·曼说到，因为投资者为了税收的目的而重新定位。

The "inverted yield curve"—that is, yields on long-term bonds below those on short-term ones,

“反向收益率曲线”—即长期债券的收益率低于短期债券，

historically a sign that a recession is on the way— has been ringing alarm bells recently.

从历史上看，这是衰退即将来临的征兆—近期敲响了警钟。

But Ms Mann doubts its continued predictive power after a long period in which central-bank intervention depressed interest rates.

但曼女士怀疑在中央银行进行长时间的干预后，其持续的预测能力压制住了利率。