2019年经济学人 橙剂:印度大选(3)（在线收听）

This is not just despicable, it is dangerous. India is too combustible a place to be put into the hands of politicians who campaign with flamethrowers. As it is, vigilantes often beat up or lynch Muslims they suspect of harming cows, a holy animal for Hindus. Kashmiris studying in other parts of India have been set upon by angry nationalist mobs. And even if the BJP’s Muslimbaiting does not ignite any more full-scale pogroms, it still leaves 175m Indians feeling like second-class citizens.

这不仅卑鄙，而且危险。印度是一个非常易燃的地方，不应该被那些持喷火器竞选的政客们所控制。事实上，义务警员经常殴打或私刑他们怀疑伤害牛的穆斯林，而牛是印度教徒的神圣动物。在印度其他地区学习的克什米尔人遭到了愤怒的民族主义暴徒的袭击。即使人民党对穆斯林的煽动没有引发更大规模的大屠杀，它仍然让1.75亿印度人感觉自己是二等公民。

Congress, the BJP’s only national rival, may be hidebound and corrupt, but at least it does not set Indians at one another’s throats. It has come up with an impressive manifesto, with thoughtful ideas about how to help the poorest Indians. Its leader, Rahul Gandhi, although a much-derided dynast, has helped modernise the party a little, raising its profile on social media, for example. It is a worthier recipient of Indians’ votes than the BJP.

印度人民党唯一的全国对手国大党，可能墨守成规和腐败，但至少不会让印度人自相残杀。人民党提出了一个令人印象深刻的宣言，提出了如何帮助最贫穷的印度人的深思熟虑的想法。该党领袖拉胡尔•甘地虽然饱受嘲笑，但他在一定程度上推动了该党的现代化，比如提高了该党在社交媒体上的知名度。它比人民党更有资格获得印度人的选票。

With less than a tenth of the seats in parliament, Congress will not improve its showing enough to form a government on its own. If it and its regional allies do better than expected, they may just be able to cobble together a majority. But even if, as is more likely, the BJP remains in charge, it would be preferable if it were forced to govern in coalition. (The current government is technically a coalition, but since the BJP has the numbers to rule without its partners, they have little influence.) The risk is that reforms get delayed yet again—but they were not progressing quickly anyway. A degree of bickering and stasis would be a price worth paying to curb the BJP’s excesses. At the very least, coalition partners might be able to bring down a truly wayward BJP government by leaving it.

由于在议会中只有不到十分之一的席位，国会的表现将不足以独自组建政府。如果美国及其地区盟友的表现好于预期，他们或许就能勉强获得多数席位。但即使人民党继续掌权(可能性更大)，若被迫联合执政将会更好。（从技术上讲，目前的政府是一个联合政府，但由于人民党拥有独立执政所需的人数，他们几乎没有影响力。）风险在于改革又一次被推迟了——但无论如何，改革进展并不快。一定程度的争吵和停滞将是遏制人民党过度行为值得付出的代价。至少，联合政府的伙伴们可以通过离开印度人民党来推翻一个真正任性的政府。