2019年经济学人美国经济:空欢喜一场(2)（打印版）

The real economy had also shown some signs of an approaching downturn, however.

但实体经济也显示出一些衰退即将来临的迹象。

Business confidence had soured and the housing market, so often a leading indicator of economic trouble, had sagged.

商业信心已下降，住房市场（通常是经济问题的先行指标）也已下跌。

At the start of 2019 came more bad news, as a lengthy partial federal-government shutdown depressed both output and consumer sentiment.

2019年年初又传来了更多的坏消息，由于部分联邦政府长期停罢，产出和消费者信心都受到压制。

The economy had been expected to cool a little anyway, as the impetus from the Trump administration's fiscal stimulus faded.

随着特朗普政府财政刺激动因的消失，不管怎样，经济有望稍微降温。

The fear that a soft landing might turn into a hard one did not seem far-fetched.

对软性经济滑坡可能变成硬着陆的担忧并非牵强。

Jesse Edgerton, an economist at JPMorgan Chase, says there are still reasons to be cautious, notably weak business confidence.

摩根大通公司的经济学家Jesse Edgerton表示，仍有理由保持谨慎，尤其是疲弱的商业信心。

But more recent data have looked rosier. Sentiment among consumers has rebounded.

但更多的近期数据看起来更加乐观。消费者信心已回弹。

Jobs growth in March recovered from a hiccup in February (April's figures are due on May 3rd, after The Economist went to press).

3月就业率从2月的短暂下跌中恢复（4月的数据将在5月3日《经济学人》出版后公布）。

And although GDP growth of 3.2% in the first quarter hid some softening components, recent trends suggest that they will bounce back.

虽然第一季度GDP 3.2%的增长隐藏了一些疲软因素，但近期趋势表明它们将再次回弹。

Investors in the stockmarket seem to have forgotten the whole scare,

股市投资者似乎已经忘记了整个恐慌，

and to believe that the economy will grow fast enough to produce profits but not so fast that the Fed will have to intervene.

并且他们相信经济将迅速增长并足以产生利润，但却不足以快到让美联储进行干预。

Investors in government debt seem warier. They are still betting that the Fed will cut interest rates at least once by the end of the year.

政府债务投资者似乎比较谨慎。他们仍打赌美联储将在今年年底至少减息一次。

For now, the Fed has decided to sit tight. Since the stockmarket wobbles late last year, a different difficulty has become much more obvious.

目前，美联储已经决定按兵不动。自去年年底股市动乱以来，一个不同的困难已经变得更加明显了。

Inflation, which the Fed had expected to hover around 2%, fell to just 1.6% in March,

3月的通货膨胀（美联储希望膨胀徘徊在2%左右）跌至仅1.6%，

based on a measure that excludes (volatile) food and energy prices.

以一种不包括（挥发性）食物和能源价格在内的测量方法为基础进行测量。

On May 1st Mr Powell said that he saw good reasons to expect it to be "transitory".

5月1日，鲍威尔先生表示他有充分的理由认为这只是“暂时的”。

But that is not the behaviour expected of an economy that is humming along nicely.

但这并不是一个运行良好的经济体应有的行为。

It is a better problem for the Fed to face than an imminent recession—but it is a problem, all the same.

对美联储来说，这是一个比即将到来的衰退更好的问题—但它仍是一个问题。