2019年经济学人 剑拔弩张:美国伊朗撕裂核协议(2)（在线收听）

Today hardliners are ascendant on both sides. Bellicose rhetoric has returned. Mr Bolton and Mike Pompeo, the secretary of state, believe in using economic pressure to topple the Iranian regime and bombs to stop its nuclear programme. In Tehran the mullahs and their Revolutionary Guards do not trust America. They are tightening their grip at home and lashing out abroad. In both countries policy is being dictated by intransigents, who risk stumbling into war.

如今，双方的强硬派都占据了优势。博尔顿和美国国务卿迈克?蓬佩奥都认为，应利用经济压力推翻伊朗政权，并使用炸弹阻止其核计划。在德黑兰，毛拉和他们的革命卫队不信任美国。他们正在收紧对国内的控制，并在海外大举出击。而两个国家的政策都是由冒着陷入战争风险的不妥协者制定。

It is probably too late to save the nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Iran has been complying, but critics in America complain that its temporary restrictions will ultimately legitimise the nuclear programme and that the deal will not stop Iran from producing missiles or sowing murder and mayhem abroad. President Donald Trump pulled America out of the agreement last year, calling it a “disaster”. It is not, but that damage is done. Renewed sanctions on Iran and the threat to punish anyone who trades with it have wrecked what is left of the agreement. Last week America cancelled waivers that let some countries continue to buy Iranian oil. It is extending sanctions to Iran’s metals exports. Instead of reaping the benefits of co-operation, Iran has been cut off from the global economy. The Rial has plummeted, inflation is rising and wages are falling. The economy is in crisis.

核协议全称为《联合全面行动计划》(JCPOA)，拯救核协议为时已晚。伊朗一直在遵守协议，但美国的批评人士抱怨称，其临时限制将最终使核计划合法化，该协议不能阻止伊朗生产导弹，更不能阻止其在海外制造谋杀和破坏。去年，唐纳德·特朗普总统宣布美国退出该协议，称核协议为一场“灾难”。事实并非如此，但损害已经造成。对伊朗的新一轮制裁，以及扬言要惩罚任何与伊朗交易的国家的威胁，破坏了协议的剩余部分。上周，美国取消了允许一些国家继续购买伊朗石油的豁免。正将制裁范围扩大到伊朗的金属出口。伊朗非但没有从合作中获益，反而被切断了与全球经济的联系。里亚尔暴跌，通货膨胀上升，工资下降。伊朗经济正处于危机。