2019年经济学人 剑拔弩张:美国伊朗撕裂核协议(4)（在线收听）

The potential for miscalculation is large and growing. American troops are within miles of Iranian-backed forces in Iraq and Syria. Its warships are nose to nose with Iranian patrols in the Gulf. America recently declared the Guards a terrorist group; then Iran did the same to American forces in the Middle East. Officials on both sides say their intent is peaceful, but who can believe them? America’s accusations that Iran has been planning to attack American forces or its allies in the Middle East are suspiciously unspecific. Violence by Iran’s proxies may be just the sort of provocation that leads America to launch a military strike. Mr Pompeo once suggested that he preferred American sorties to nuclear talks with Iran. Mr Bolton penned an article in 2015 in the New York Times entitled “To Stop Iran’s Bomb, Bomb Iran”. Now even Mr Rouhani appears to agree that the way forward lies with provocation and escalation.

判断错误的可能性很大，而且还在不断增加。在伊拉克和叙利亚，美国军队距离伊朗驻扎部队只有几英里。在海湾地区，美国军舰和伊朗巡逻船针锋相对。最近，美国宣布伊朗防守部队为恐怖组织；在中东，伊朗也宣称美国军队为恐怖组织。双方官员都表示旨在维护和平，但何以让人信服？美国指责伊朗一直计划袭击美国军队或其在中东的盟友，这一指责含糊不清，令人生疑。伊朗政府的暴力可能挑衅了美国发动军事打击。蓬佩奥曾表示，比起与伊朗进行核谈判，他更希望美国出击。2015年，博尔顿在《纽约时报》上发表了一篇题为《停止伊朗制核弹，轰炸伊朗》的文章。现在，就连鲁哈尼似乎也同意，前进取决于挑衅和升级。

A nuclear Iran would spur proliferation across the Middle East. Bombing would not destroy Iranian nuclear know-how, but it would drive the programme underground, making it impossible to monitor and thus all the more dangerous. The only permanent solution is renewed negotiation. Mr Trump, a harsh critic of America’s foreign wars, therefore needs to keep the likes of Mr Bolton in check. He will face pressure from hardline politicians at home and opposition in the region, not least from Israel.

拥有核武器的伊朗将刺激整个中东地区的核扩散。轰炸不会摧毁伊朗的核技术，只会让将核计划转入地下，使其无法监控，因而更加危险。唯一的长远解决办法是重新谈判。因此，严厉批评美国对外战争的特朗普需要控制住博尔顿这样的人物。特朗普将面临来自国内强硬派政客和该地区反对派的压力，尤其是来自以色列的压力。

Doing deals, though, is a Trump trademark. The president has shown an ability to change direction abruptly, as with North Korea. A new war is not in his interest, even if being hard on Iran is part of his brand. The Europeans can help him by urging Iran to keep within the deal—and condemning it if it leaves. Mr Rouhani, who spurned Mr Trump in the past, now says he is willing to talk with the deal’s other signatories if today’s agreement is the basis. That has so far been a non-starter for the Trump administration. It should not be. As the threat of a conflict grows, all sides need to head back to the negotiating table.

然而，特朗普的标志就是做交易。总统已经显示出突然改变方向的能力，正如其在处理朝鲜问题时展现的那样。虽然对伊朗采取强硬态度是特朗普的招牌，但是发起新战争不符合其利益。欧洲可以通过敦促伊朗遵守协议来帮助他，如果伊朗离开，欧洲还可以谴责伊朗。鲁哈尼过去曾对特朗普不屑一顾，现在表示，如果以今天的协议为基础，他愿意与该协议的其他签署国进行谈判。到目前为止，这对特朗普政府来说是不可能的。本不应如此。随着冲突威胁的增加，各方都需要回到谈判桌上来。