2019年经济学人 阿拉巴马州的大新闻:堕胎法案(3)（在线收听）

The move, wrote Stephen Breyer, one of the liberal justices, “can only cause one to wonder which cases the Court will overrule next.” Lest anyone wondered what sort of case he had in mind, he cited Planned Parenthood v Casey, a ruling from 1992 that upheld Roe.

自由派法官之一斯蒂芬?布雷耶写道，这一举措是为了保护美国公民，“只会让人怀疑接下来法院会驳回哪些案件。”为了避免有人想知道他在考虑什么样的案件，他引用了计划生育协会诉凯西案，这是1992年的一项裁决，支持罗伊案件的判决。

Some pro-life activists are cautious about the prospects of overturning Roe. Clarke Forsythe, senior lawyer for Americans United for Life, which has drawn up successful state-level abortion regulations, says his organisation watches carefully every time the court overturns a precedent:“it happens more often than many imagine”. But he also points out that the court, and in particular Chief Justice John Roberts, seem in no hurry to overturn Roe. He does not expect the justices to take on a direct challenge for “two or three years”.

一些反堕胎活动人士对推翻罗伊案件判决的前景持谨慎态度。美国生命联合组织高级律师克拉克?福赛斯表示，每当法院推翻一个先例时，他所在的组织都会密切关注:“这种情况发生的频率超出许多人的想象。” 但他也指出，最高法院，尤其是首席大法官约翰?罗伯茨，似乎并不急于推翻罗伊案件的判决。他预计法官们在“两三年内”不会接受直接的挑战。

That is probably right. Casting himself as a pro-life warrior is useful for Mr Trump, who needs to keep the support of conservative evangelicals in 2020. But actually overturning Roe before the next presidential election would be an electoral disaster for Republicans, since a large majority of Americans believe abortions should be legal up to the third trimester.

这可能是对的。把自己塑造成反堕胎斗士对特朗普很有用，他需要在2020年保持保守派福音派的支持。但实际上，在下届总统选举前推翻罗伊案件判决对共和党人来说将是一场选举灾难，因为绝大多数美国人认为妊娠晚期之前堕胎应该合法。

Undermining early abortion rights can be risky for state lawmakers, too. Georgia, which last week became the fourth state this year to pass a heartbeat bill, has long been deeply conservative. But it is becoming more diverse and urban, as the inroads made by Democrats in November’s midterms attest. A recent poll found that more voters in the state opposed the heartbeat bill than supported it.

对州议员来说，破坏早期堕胎权也有风险。佐治亚州上周成为今年第四个通过心跳法案的州，长期以来一直非常保守。但正如民主党在11月中期选举中取得的进展所证明的那样，佐治亚州正变得更加多样化和城市化。最近的一项民意调查发现，该州反对心跳法案的选民多于支持该法案的选民。