2019年经济学人 两只股票的故事(1)（在线收听）

It would be hard to tell a story about America's stockmarket without mention of at least one company that listed this century—Google or Facebook, say.

如果不提及在本世纪上市的至少一家公司，比如谷歌或脸书，就很难讲述关于美国股市的故事。

Europe is rather different. Its bourses are heavy with giants from the age of industry but light on the digital champions of tomorrow.

欧洲就相当不一样。欧洲交易所里满是来自工业时代的巨头，却很少有未来的数字化冠军。

It is telling, perhaps, that its character can be captured in the contrasting fortunes of two companies, Nestlé and Daimler,

从两家公司—雀巢和戴姆勒—截然不同的命运中，或许可以看清它的特征，

with roots not even in the 20th century, but in the 19th.

两家公司甚至不是源于20世纪，而是19世纪。

Nestlé began in 1867 when Henri Nestlé, a German pharmacist, developed a powdered milk for babies.

雀巢公司始于1867年，当时德国药剂师亨利·雀巢发明了一款婴儿奶粉。

The firm, based in Switzerland, is now the world's largest food company.

这家总部位于瑞士的公司如今是世界上最大的食品公司。

It owns a broad stable of well-known brands, including Nescafé and KitKat.

该公司拥有一系列知名品牌，包括雀巢咖啡和奇巧巧克力。

Its coffee, cereals and stock cubes are sold everywhere, from air-conditioned supermarkets in rich countries to sun-scorched stalls in poor ones.

它生产的咖啡、麦片和浓缩固体汤料到处都有卖，从发达国家装有空调的超市到贫穷国家露天的小摊。

Daimler was founded a bit later, in 1890. Its Mercedes-Benz brand of saloon cars and SUVS

戴姆勒创立于1890年，比雀巢稍晚一点。其奔驰品牌的轿车和SUV

is favoured by the rich world's professionals and the developing world's politicians.

深受发达国家专业人士和发展中国家政客的喜爱。

Though the two companies have lots in common, their stockmarket fortunes could scarcely be more different.

尽管这两家公司有很多共同之处，但它们在股市的命运却截然不同。

Nestlé is the sort of "quality" stock that is increasingly prized in Europe for its steadiness.

雀巢是一支“优质”股票，其稳定性在欧洲日益受到珍视。

It is expensive: its price-to-earnings, or PE, ratio is 29. In contrast Daimler is a "value" stock, with a PE of eight.

它的股票很贵：其市盈（PE）率是29。相比之下，戴姆勒是一支“价值型”股票，PE为8.

The disparity has steadily grown in recent years. Indeed the gap between the dearest stocks and the cheapest across the continent

这种差距近年来稳步增长。确实，整个欧洲最贵与最便宜股票之间的差距

is at its widest in almost two decades, says Graham Secker of Morgan Stanley.

达到了近20年来的最大化，摩根士丹利的格雷厄姆·塞克说到。

The valuation gap in Europe is related to a similar divide in America. For much of stockmarket history,

欧洲的估值差距与美国的类似差距有关。在大部分股票历史中，

buying value stocks—with a low price relative to earnings or to the book value of tangible assets,

购买价值型股票—与收益或有形资产，如设备和建筑等的账面价值相比

such as equipment and buildings—has been a winning strategy for stockpickers.

其价格较低—一直都是选股者的制胜策略。

But the past decade has been miserable for value stocks in America.

但过去十年，美国价值型股票命运悲惨。

The rapid rise of a handful of tech firms—the Googles and Facebooks—and other "growth" stocks has left them in the shade.

少数科技公司的迅速崛起—谷歌和Facebook—以及其他“成长”股让它们黯然失色。

Value stocks are, by definition, cheap. In the past they might have been cyclical stocks,

价值型股票显然很便宜。在过去，它们可能一直是周期性股票，

those that do well when the world economy is picking up steam, but which suffer in downturns.

这类股票在世界经济蒸蒸日上时表现良好，但在低迷时期会衰退。

These days the cheap stocks are in industries, such as carmaking and branch-based banking, that are ripe for disruption.

如今，廉价股票出现在汽车制造和分支银行等行业，这些行业面临解体的时机已经成熟。

But in Europe, they are especially cheap.

但在欧洲，它们特别便宜。