2019年经济学人 路的尽头--特蕾莎·梅辞职(2)（在线收听）

In the sameway, Remainers might once also have been satisfied by the prospect of a customs union, so long as it was tied to a vote in Parliament on whether to hold a second referendum. But when Mrs May belatedly offered such things this week, it was dismissed by all sides as inadequate. The scope for compromise has drastically narrowed from where it stood in 2016. Talks with the Labour opposition and indicative votes among mps on possible Brexit options have gone nowhere, in large part because they were initiated so late in the day. Mrs May inherited a divided country which urgently needed to be coaxed back together. Her approach has driven its two tribes still further apart.

同样，只要关税联盟与议会投票决定是否举行第二次公投有关，留欧派也可能曾对关税联盟的前景满意。但当梅本周姗姗来迟地提出这些建议时，各方都认为这些建议不够充分，不予理会。与2016年相比，妥协的余地已经大幅缩小。与工党反对派的谈判以及议员们就可能的退欧方案进行的指示性投票都无果而终，这在很大程度上是因为谈判是在当天晚些时候启动的。梅接手的是一个分裂的国家，迫切需要重新团结起来。但她的做法使这两派进一步分裂。

She has no cards left to play. A change of leader might give new momentum to talks in Westminster, which have stalled in the past few weeks, despite the EU’s urging of Britain to get on with it. Boris Johnson, the favourite among the Conservative Party members who will choose the next leader, represents a dangerous gamble for the country. But he may be more capable than Mrs May of the political and ideological flexibility that will be required to get Britain out of the trap in which it has placed itself.

她已无牌可打。尽管欧盟敦促英国继续进行谈判，但在过去几周，英国议会的谈判陷入停滞。鲍里斯?约翰逊是保守党成员中最有希望当选下任领导人的人，对英国来说，这是一场危险的赌博。但他可能比梅更有能力在政治和意识形态方面保持灵活性，这是英国摆脱自身所陷困境所必需的。

No one should assume that Mrs May’s exit will solve Britain’s Brexit problems. Mr Johnson proposes to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement, but the EU is sure to refuse him. At home, most Leave-voters detest the current deal so vehemently that they would rather quit with no deal at all (another dreadful legacy of Mrs May, who spent two years saying Britain could prosper with no deal, before admitting that she was wrong). Upstart parties on both the Leave and Remain sides are tugging Labour and the Tories towards the extremes. The possibility of cross-party agreement seems more remote than ever. And as the chances of no deal edge up, the pound is sliding. Mrs May has had a wretched time in office. Her successor will find it no easier.

人们不应该认为梅的退出会解决英国的脱欧问题。约翰逊提议重新谈判撤军协议，但欧盟肯定会拒绝他。在国内，大多数脱欧派选民对目前的协议深恶痛绝，他们宁愿在没有任何协议的情况下脱欧（梅的另一个可怕的遗留问题是，她在承认自己错了之前的两年里一直表示，没有协议，英国就能繁荣）。左派和左派的新贵政党都在把工党和保守党推向极端。跨党派达成协议的可能性似乎比以往任何时候都要渺茫。而且，由于没有达成协议的可能性小幅上升，英镑正在下滑。梅在位的时候过得很艰难。而之后的继任者会发现不会更容易。