2019年经济学人 欧盟的最高职位(2)（在线收听）

A more complex political landscape puts both of these conventions in doubt. The top lot in the parliament is now, as before, the European People’s Party (EPP), a group consisting mainly of Christian Democrat parties. But the EPP won only 24% of the seats, which hardly justifies an exclusive claim to lead the commission. And the Rubik’s routine cannot hope to capture the variety of political families and regional patterns in today’s Europe. Even if a token southerner were appointed, for example, the difference between a candidate from pro-European Spain and one from Eurosceptic Italy might be vast. If Christian Democrats, Social Democrats and Liberals all get to run things, the only slightly smaller Greens will understandably object. The cube has too many dimensions.

更复杂的政治环境使这两项公约都受到质疑。和以前一样，欧洲议会的突出团体是欧洲人民党(EPP)，这是一个主要由基督教民主党组成的团体。但是欧洲人民党只赢得了24%的席位，这很难成为领导欧盟委员会的唯一理由。而魔方的套路也不可能捕捉到当今欧洲政治家族和地区格局的多样性。例如，即使一个象征性的南方人被任命，亲欧洲的西班牙和疑欧的意大利的候选人之间的差异也可能是巨大的。如果基督教民主党、社会民主党和自由主义者都能掌控局面，那么只有规模稍小的绿党会反对，这是可以理解的。这个魔方的尺寸太大了。

Perhaps that is just as well. For now, more than ever, Europe’s leaders should be concentrating instead on getting the right people for the job. President Donald Trump has questioned the transatlantic alliance, tariff wars threaten Europe’s prosperity, turmoil on its borders challenges its security, digital giants from China and America are dwarfing its firms, and economic storm clouds are once again gathering above the euro zone. Leading a more fragmented Europe through these difficulties—let alone reasserting its interests and relevance in the world—will require seasoned leadership.

也许这样也好。目前，欧洲领导人比以往任何时候都更应该集中精力寻找合适的人选。美国总统唐纳德?特朗普对跨大西洋联盟提出了质疑，关税战争威胁着欧洲的繁荣，边境动荡挑战着欧洲的安全，来自中国和美国的数字巨头让美国公司相形见绌，欧元区上空再次笼罩着经济风暴的阴云。领导一个更加分裂的欧洲度过这些困难，还有重申欧洲在世界上的利益和相关性，将需要经验丰富的领导。

The EU may not get it. Manfred Weber, the EPP’s candidate for the commission, has no executive experience and, judging by his association with Hungary’s authoritarian government, poor judgment. If he falls short, leaders may offer the ECB presidency to another German, Jens Weidmann, a banker with über-hawkish views, to ensure that a German gets at least one of the top jobs. But that should not be a given. In a more meritocratic EU the commission presidency might go to Margrethe Vestager, the dynamic (Danish) competition commissioner. Antonio Costa of Portugal, Leo Varadkar of Ireland or even Mrs Merkel, all skilled compromise brokers, might lead the council. At the ECB, a moderate like Finland’s Olli Rehn would be better than Mr Weidmann.

欧盟可能不会明白这一点。欧洲人民党委员会候选人曼弗雷德?韦伯没有行政经验，从他与匈牙利威权政府的关系判断，他的判断力很差。如果达不到要求，领导人可能会把欧洲央行行长职位交给另一位德国人延斯?魏德曼担任，以确保德国人至少能获得一份最高职位。魏德曼是一位银行家，持有极端鹰派的观点。但这不应该是理所当然的。在一个更加精英化的欧盟，欧盟委员会主席一职可能会交给充满活力的(丹麦)竞争事务专员玛格丽特?维斯特格。葡萄牙的安东尼奥·科斯塔、爱尔兰的里奥·瓦拉德卡尔、甚至默克尔夫人，都是老练的妥协经纪人，可能会领导委员会。在欧洲央行，像芬兰的奥利?雷恩这样的温和派会比魏德曼做得更好。

True meritocracy is improbable, alas. National egos and power politics will always require some horse-trading. But as much as possible, the EU should focus on substance. From the eurozone and migration crises to the Brexit vote, the EU has had several brushes with mortality in recent years. More are doubtless to come. Its big jobs matter. Placeholders should not apply.

唉，真正的贤能统治是不可能的。国家的自负和强权政治总是需要一些讨价还价。但欧盟应尽可能关注实质内容。从欧元区危机和移民危机，到英国退欧公投，欧盟近年