2019年经济学人 苹果公司的忧患意识(2)（在线收听）

Mr Cook’s bet on China extended beyond its factories to its consumers. Sales to the region have risen from next-to-nothing in 2010 to $52bn last year, or almost a fifth of Apple’s revenues. Since Donald Trump’s election in 2016, “Tim Apple” (as America’s president once called him) has jetted to Washington and Beijing to try to ease rising trade tensions between the two superpowers. Horace Dediu, a technology analyst, says Mr Cook “knows how to navigate the political mind”.

库克对中国的押注已从工厂扩展到消费者。苹果在中国的销售额已从2010年的几乎为零增长至去年的520亿美元，几乎占苹果总收入的五分之一。自唐纳德?特朗普2016年当选美国总统以来，“蒂姆?苹果”(美国总统曾这样称呼他)往来华盛顿和北京，试图缓解这两个超级大国之间不断加剧的贸易紧张局势。科技分析师贺拉斯?德迪欧表示，库克“知道如何应对政治思维”。

Given his reputation as a logistical mastermind, it is worth asking why he has ignored the first rule of supply-chain management: the risk of keeping too many important eggs in one basket. In Mr Cook’s case, that basket is China. The trade bust-up is getting uglier. If it leads to an anti-American backlash in China, it could spell trouble for Apple—and for Mr Cook personally.

考虑到他作为物流策划者的声誉，有必要问问他为什么忽略了供应链管理的第一条规则：在一个篮子里放太多重要鸡蛋的风险。就库克而言，这个篮子就是中国。贸易争端愈演愈烈。中国一旦抵制美国产品，这将给苹果公司和库克先生个人带来麻烦。

Mr Cook’s lobbying has helped Apple avoid direct hits from Mr Trump’s tariffs, already imposed on $250bn-worth of Chinese imports. But its shares have fallen by almost 12% in the past month. On June 1st, after The Economist went to press, China was expected to retaliate with tariffs on $60bn of American goods, including components for Apple devices. Mr Trump has threatened a levy of 25% on $300bn more of imports if trade talks do not produce a breakthrough. This would cover the iPhone, by far Apple’s biggest source of revenue. Morgan Stanley, a bank, estimates that it could add $160 to the cost of a $999 iPhone xs. Apple could absorb the cost or pass it on to buyers. Either way, profits would suffer.

库克的游说帮助苹果避免了来自特朗普关税的直接冲击。特朗普已对价值2500亿美元的中国进口产品征收关税。但其股价在过去一个月下跌了近12%。6月1日，在这期《经济学人》付印后，预计中国将对600亿美元的美国商品征收关税作为回击，其中包括苹果设备的零部件。特朗普威胁称，如果贸易谈判不能取得突破，美国将对3000亿美元的进口商品加征25%的关税。这包括iPhone，到目前为止，iPhone是苹果最大的收入来源。摩根斯坦利估计，iPhone xs将在999美元的价格基础上再加价160美元。苹果或自己承担成本，或把成本转嫁给消费者。无论哪种方式，利润都会受损。