2019年经济学人 苹果公司的忧患意识(3)（在线收听）

A more immediate threat may be a Chinese reprisal for the Trump administration’s decision in May, on national-security grounds, to stop American companies from supplying Huawei, China’s tech champion (and the biggest seller of smartphones in China), with chips, software and other technology. A Chinese consumer boycott of Apple products could accelerate their shift towards other, cheaper brands. Because of the trade tensions, Citi, a bank, has halved its forecast for iPhone sales in China in the second half of this year, from almost 14.5m to 7.2m units.

5月，特朗普政府以国家安全为由，阻止美国公司向中国科技巨头华为(中国最大的智能手机销售商)提供芯片、软件和其他技术。中国对此的反击是更直接的威胁。若中国消费者抵制苹果产品，可能会加速他们转向其它更低价的品牌。由于贸易紧张，今年下半年，花旗银行将iPhone在中国的销量预期减半，从1450万部降至720万部。

Others reckon that Apple could offset Chinese losses by luring customers away from Huawei in other countries—but only if it could continue to churn them out in Chinese factories. Although Apple has tentatively started production of some iPhones in India for local customers, it appears if anything to have increased its China exposure, even as Mr Trump’s trade bluster has intensified. According to a review of Apple’s top 200 suppliers by the Nikkei Asian Review, a Japanese publication, last year those from China (41) exceeded those from America (37) for the first time—though Apple stresses the importance of its American supply chain. China has recently released draft cyber-security regulations that cover threats to national security and supply chains. Andrew Gilholm of Control Risks, a consultancy, says these could be weaponised against big American firms in China if the situation deteriorates.

其他人则认为，苹果可以通过吸引其他国家的客户离开华为来抵消中国的损失，但前提是苹果能够继续在中国工厂大量生产产品。尽管苹果公司已初步开始在印度为当地客户生产部分iphone，但似乎此举增加了苹果在中国的业务，即便特朗普的贸易咆哮有所加剧。根据《日经亚洲评论》对苹果前200家供应商的评估，去年来自中国的供应商(41家)首次超过了来自美国的供应商(37家)——尽管苹果在强调美国供应链的重要性。中国最近发布了网络安全条例草案，涵盖了对国家安全和供应链的威胁。咨询公司化险集团的安德鲁?吉洛姆表示，如果形势恶化，这些武器可以用来对付在华的美国大公司。