2019年经济学人 苹果公司的忧患意识(4)（在线收听）

That would be the nuclear option. It looks unlikely for the time being. The costs for China would be huge; Mr Dediu estimates that Apple contributes about $24bn a year to China’s economy. Some 1.5m Chinese help assemble Apple products. A further 2.5m Chinese software engineers create apps for the ios operating system. Appetite for punishment may be weak. On May 26th Ren Zhengfei, Huawei’s boss, told Bloomberg tv that he would be the first to protest if China hits back against Apple. “Apple is my teacher, it’s in the lead,” he said. “As a student why go against my teacher? Never.”

那将是核选项。目前看来不太可能。中国将付出巨大代价；德迪欧估计，苹果每年为中国经济贡献约240亿美元。大约150万中国人为苹果组装产品。另有250万名中国软件工程师为ios操作系统开发应用程序。所以惩罚的想法可能是微弱的。5月26日，华为总裁任正非在接受彭博电视台采访时表示，如果中国对苹果公司进行反击，他将是第一个提出抗议的人。“苹果是我的老师，起到了带头的作用，”他说。“作为一个学生，为什么要反对我的老师?从来不会。”

Mr Ren can always change his mind. So can China. Whereas Huawei claims to have a Plan B to survive its blacklisting by America, and Samsung, a rival smartphone-maker from South Korea, is shifting supply chains from China, Apple appears to have no clear alternative to assembly in China. Few other places possess the expertise to produce the high-end components that Apple needs. The existing network would take years to unscramble.

任先生能改变主意。中国也可以。尽管华为声称有B计划来度过被美国列入黑名单的日子，而其竞争对手韩国智能手机制造商三星正在将供应链从中国转移，但苹果似乎除了在中国组装之外没有明确的选择。生产苹果所需高端零部件的专业知识其他地方少有。现有的网络需要数年的时间来整理。

On Apple watch

苹果智能手表

One fix would be for Apple to develop another indispensable product that no self-respecting affluent Chinese consumer could do without. For all his success, Mr Cook has not yet managed this. Another would be to develop services that do not need production in China. Apple’s much-trailed announcement in March of new video- streaming, payments and other services shows it is trying. They may prove a hit, but would be no substitute for the iPhone. Mr Cook must be hoping that he has not miscalculated the risks to the supply chains he has so intricately engineered. 

解决办法之一是，苹果开发出另一款不可或缺的产品，任何要面子的富裕中国消费者都离不开它。尽管库克取得了巨大成功，但他尚未做到这一点。另一个目标是开发不需要在中国生产的服务。今年3月，苹果发布了备受关注的新视频流媒体、支付和其他服务，表明该公司正在努力。它们可能会大受欢迎，但无法取代iPhone。库克一定希望自己没有误判自己精心设计的供应链所面临的风险。