2019年经济学人印度经济增长的骗局(1)（打印版）

Almost two years ago Arvind Subramanian, then India's chief economic adviser,

两年前，印度时任首席经济顾问阿文德·萨勃拉曼尼亚

published a little-noticed passage in the finance ministry's annual economic survey.

在财政部的年度经济调查中发表了一篇不太引人注意的文章。

The previous two years posed a "puzzle", he wrote.

他写道，前两年是一个“谜”。

India had reported miracle growth in GDP (averaging 7.5%) despite miserable growth in investment, exports and credit.

印度报道，尽管投资、出口和贷款增长惨淡，但GDP出现了奇迹般的增长（平均增长7.5%）。

He looked for comparable examples elsewhere since 1991. He found none.

他一直在到处寻找1991年以来的类似例子，但却没有找到。

No country had grown faster than 7% in such circumstances. None, in fact, had grown faster than 5%.

在这种情况下，没有一个国家的GDP增长超过7%。事实上，连超过5%的都没有。

India's rapid expansion, he warned, might be hard to sustain.

他警告称，印度的快速增长或许难以证实。

Or, indeed, hard to believe. Mr Subramanian's official position meant he could not say that loudly then.

或者，确实难以置信。萨勃拉曼尼亚先生当时的公职意味着他不能大肆宣扬。

But he is saying it now. In a paper published by Harvard University, where he is a visiting fellow,

但现在他说出来了。现在他是哈佛大学的客座人员，在哈佛大学发表的一篇论文中

he argues that India's growth figures have been greatly overstated.

他称印度的增长数字被极大地夸大了。

From the 2011-12 fiscal year to 2016-17, its economy officially expanded by about 7% a year,

从2011-12财年到2016-17财年，官方称其经济年增长约7%，

eventually outpacing China's to become the fastest-growing big economy.

最终超过中国，成为增长最快的经济大国。

That boast has helped entice over $350bn of foreign investment in the past seven years.

在过去7年中，这种吹嘘帮助吸引了超过3500亿美元的国外投资

But India's true growth, Mr Subramanian thinks, is more like 4.5%.

但印度真实的经济增长，萨勃拉曼尼亚先生认为，更有可能是4.5%。

Rather than outperforming China, India has underperformed Indonesia.

印度的表现没有胜过中国，甚至还不如印度尼西亚。

His paper starts by reporting a variety of indicators that have slowed sharply since 2011-12, even as growth has remained steady.

他的论文首先报告了一系列自2011年至2012年以来急剧放缓的指标，尽管经济增长一直保持稳定。

He then tries to measure the size of the problem. Looking at more than 70 countries from 2002 to 2016,

然后他试图衡量问题的规模。他研究了从2002年到2016年间的70多个国家，

he estimates the typical relationship between GDP growth and four other indicators: the growth of credit, exports, imports and electricity.

并评估了GDP增长和四个其他指标（贷款增长、出口、进口和电力）之间的典型关系。

Before 2011 that relationship also held in India. But after it, India became an outlier.

在2011年前，这种关系也存在于印度。但之后，印度成为了一个异常。

Its reported growth was over 7%, even as the weakness of imports, exports and credit suggested growth closer to 4.5%.

其报道的经济增长超过7%，即便疲弱的进出口和贷款表明其增长接近4.5%。