2019年经济学人 国际货币基金组织—拉加德的改变(1)（在线收听）

For the purposes of decision-making, the IMF's 189 member countries are divided into 24 constituencies of peculiar shapes and sizes.

为便于决策，国际货币基金组织（IMF）的189个成员国被划分为24个特殊形状和规模的选区。

Ghana, for example, belongs to the same group as Afghanistan. Ecuador sits with East Timor.

例如加纳和阿富汗同属一组。厄瓜多尔与东帝汶一组。

But in choosing the next boss after Christine Lagarde moves to the European Central Bank in October,

但在选择下一任总裁时（克里斯蒂娜·拉加德将于10月加入欧洲央行），

the most decisive constituency may be a different group entirely: the "New Hanseatic League".

最具决定性的选区可能是完全不同的群体：“新汉萨同盟”。

This includes eight small, northern members of the European Union (EU) with bad weather and good credit ratings.

该同盟包括八个欧盟（EU）北部小国，这些地方气候恶劣，但信用评级良好。

They lost out in the fight for big EU jobs earlier this month. In compensation they may have a large say in Europe's pick to lead the fund.

本月早些时候，他们在争夺欧盟重要职位的斗争中落败。作为补偿，他们可能在对欧洲选择IMF领导人上有很大的发言权。

That could be good news for Mark Carney, the charismatic and credentialled boss of the Bank of England.

这对马克·卡尼而言可能是件好事，他是英格兰银行行长，魅力超凡且很有资历。

As well as Canadian and British citizenship, he holds a passport from Ireland, one of the new Hanseatics.

除了加拿大和英国公民身份，他还持有爱尔兰护照，爱尔兰是新汉萨同盟成员之一。

If Ireland champions his cause in the league, and the league backs him within the union, he would be hard to resist within the fund.

如果爱尔兰在同盟中捍卫他的事业，且同盟也在联盟中支持他，那么在基金组织中，他将很难抗拒。

By convention the IMF is led by whichever European candidate the Americans can live with.

按照惯例，IMF由美国人能够容忍的任何一位欧洲候选人领导。

And the Americans are unlikely to object to him,

并且美国人不可能反对他，

especially after the Europeans dutifully supported Washington's choice to run the World Bank earlier this year.

尤其是在今年早些时候，欧洲尽职尽责地支持美国选择执掌世界银行之后。

What about an Asian rival? One obvious candidate is Tharman Shanmugaratnam,

那亚洲的竞争对手呢？一位显而易见的候选人是尚达曼

a former finance minister and deputy prime minister of Singapore, who also chairs its monetary authority.

新加坡前财政部长兼副总理，现任新加坡金融管理局主席。

As well as a background in economics, he has the virtue of hailing from a small country that is neither improvident nor imperious—

除了经济背景，他还有一个优点，那就是来自一个既不挥霍也不专横的小国—

the kind of country that would be a member of Asia's Hanseatic league if it had one.

如果有这样一个国家，那么它将成为亚洲汉萨同盟的一员。

But even in a fair race he would struggle to beat Mr Carney, who has run two of the world's biggest central banks.

但即使在公平的竞争中，他也很难击败卡尼，卡尼执掌着全球最大的两家央行。

And given the horse-trading between Europe and America, the IMF race will not be entirely fair.

鉴于欧洲和美国之间的精明交易，IMF的竞争不可能完全公平。

Why, then, bother entering? Candidates from outside Europe face a Catch-22:

那么，为什么要费力地进去呢？欧洲以外的候选人要面临一个无法摆脱的困境：

anyone credible enough to win an unrigged race will not be crazy enough to enter a rigged one.

任何一个足够可信并能够赢得一场不受操纵的竞选的人，都不会疯狂到参加一场受操纵的竞选。

That is a pity, because a contest might force the fund's members to think harder about the institution's future.

这是一个遗憾，因为一场竞赛可能会迫使基金组织的成员更加努力地思考该机构的未来。

In 2004 Mr Shanmugaratnam revealed that he kept four canes in his cupboard, one for each of his children.

在2004年，尚达曼透露他在碗柜里放了四根藤条，一个孩子一根。

But he never had to use them. That is many people's ideal for how the IMF should work.

但他从来没有用过。这是许多人对IMF该如何运作的理想看法。

Borrowing countries would live up to its standards of economic behaviour, fearing that otherwise it would refuse further lending.

借款国将要符合其经济行为的标准，否则将有被IMF拒绝进一步放贷的担心。

And speculators would be intimidated by the "flexible credit lines" and other tools in its cupboard,

而投机者将受到“灵活信贷额度”及橱柜中其他工具的威胁

meaning that they would never test the currencies and creditworthiness those tools are designed to defend.

这意味着他们永远不会去检验那些工具所捍卫的货币和好信誉。