2019年经济学人 日本和韩国之间的贸易争端(2)（在线收听）

Japan’s decision to limit exports is economically shortsighted, as it should know since it has itself been on the other side of such controls. When China restricted exports of rareearth minerals in 2011, Japan responded by investing in its own mines. China’s market share dropped. Already, the South Korean government is discussing plans to foster the domestic chemicals production. Japan insists that South Korean companies will, once approved, still be able to buy its chemicals, but the threat of an embargo, once issued, cannot be easily dispelled.

日本限制出口的决定在经济上是短视的，这是日本应该知道的，因为日本一直处于这种控制的另一边。2011年，当中国限制稀土出口时，日本的反应是投资本国矿山。韩国政府已经在讨论促进国内化学品生产的计划。日本坚持认为，韩国公司一旦获得批准，仍然可以购买日本的化学品，但禁运的威胁一旦发出，就不可能轻易消除。

The broader geopolitical context makes Japan’s self-harm even more reckless. Regional supply chains are already under assault. South Korean and Japanese companies are scrambling to find alternatives to China as a manufacturing base to avoid American tariffs. Mr Trump has threatened both countries with import duties on their cars.

更广泛的地缘政治背景使得日本的自残行为更加鲁莽。区域供应链已经受到了冲击。韩国和日本企业正争先恐后地寻找中国以外的制造业基地，以避免美国的关税。特朗普威胁要对两国的汽车征收进口税。

Ultimately, it is up to South Korea and Japan to repair relations. But America’s waning interest in diplomacy does not help. And Mr Trump is normalising the use of trade weapons in political spats. His tactics teach others how to find an excuse for these actions: by citing national security. Japanese media have suggested that South Korea has allowed the shipment of sensitive chemicals to North Korea, a far-fetched claim but one that could feature in a defence of its export restrictions. Under a different president, America would be doing more to bind together Japan and South Korea, two indispensable allies. Barack Obama pushed the Trans-Pacific Partnership that included Japan, and that South Korea was expected to join eventually. One of Mr Trump’s first acts was to ditch that deal.

最终，修复关系将取决于韩国和日本。但美国对外交兴趣的减弱也无济于事。特朗普正在将贸易武器在政治争端中的使用正常化。他的策略教会了其他人如何为这些行为找借口:以国家安全为由。日本媒体曾暗示，韩国已允许向朝鲜运送敏感化学品，这一说法牵强附会，但可能是为其出口限制辩护的一个理由。如果换一个总统，美国将会做更多的事情来团结日本和韩国，这是两个不可或缺的盟友。巴拉克?奥巴马推动了包括日本在内的跨太平洋伙伴关系协定，预计韩国最终也会加入。特朗普的第一反应之一就是放弃该协议。

It is not too late to defuse the situation. The commercial damage has been limited so far. Japan is aware that, notwithstanding America’s current tactics, export controls look bad; it is thus susceptible to pressure from other trading partners. The two countries will discuss their disagreement at the World Trade Organisation later this month. This is shaping up to be a test of whether the global trading system can, despite great strains, still soothe tensions—or whether it is being supplanted by a new, meaner order, in which supply chains are weaponised and commerce is purely an extension of politics.

现在缓和局势还为时不晚。到目前为止，商业损失有限。日本意识到，尽管美国采取了当前的策略，但出口控制看上去很糟糕；因此，中国很容易受到其他贸易伙伴的压力。两国将于本月晚些时候在世界贸易组织讨论他们的分歧。这将是对全球贸易体系的一次考验，看它能否在巨大的压力下仍能缓解紧张局势，或者是否正被一种新的、更为苛刻的秩序所取代，在这种秩序下，供应链被武器化，商业纯粹是政治的延伸。