2019年经济学人欧洲中央银行的探索(2)（打印版）

Some economists therefore expect attempts to mitigate the negative impact of rate cuts by excusing banks from negative rates on some excess reserves.

因此一些经济学家预计，央行将试图通过免除银行对部分超额准备金的负利率，来减轻降息的负面影响。

Even then rates may be not far off the lower bound.

即使到那时，利率可能也离下限不远了。

Analysts at BNP Paribas, a bank, think they can fall by at most 0.4 percentage points before that moment comes.

法国巴黎银行的分析师认为，在那一刻到来之前，它们最多可以下跌0.4个百分点。

That limited space is why some economists also expect the bank to restart QE later in the year.

这一有限的空间也是一些经济学家预计欧洲央行将在今年年末重启量化宽松的原因。

Daniele Antonucci of Morgan Stanley, a Wall Street firm,

来自华尔街摩根士丹利公司的Daniele Antonucci

expects the bank to announce monthly purchases of government and corporate debt of 45bn euro.

预计央行将宣布每月购买450亿欧元的政府和企业债券。

But the bank's self-imposed limit on the share of a country's sovereign debt it can own, of 33%,

但央行自行对一个国家的国债份额设限33%

means this pace probably cannot be sustained beyond a year.

这意味着这种速度可能维持不了一年以上。

This ceiling would need to be lifted if any expansion of QE is to seem credible to investors, reckons Spyros Andreopoulos of BNP Paribas.

法国巴黎银行的Spyros Andreopoulos认为，要想让投资者信任QE扩张，就需要提高上限。

Though QE's legality is questioned in Germany, in December the European Court of Justice ruled that the ECB was acting legally,

虽然QE的合法性在德国受到质疑，但今年212月，欧洲法院裁定ECB的行为合法，

appearing to give it room to raise its limit up to 50%.

这似乎给了它将上限提高到到50%的空间。

(The case returns to German courts at the end of the month, but judges are expected to bow to the ECJ.)

（该案在月末发回德国法庭，但法官可能会向欧洲法庭屈服。）

In any case the bank would need to rethink another self-imposed rule, says Mr Andreopoulos:

Andreopoulos表示，无论如何，欧洲央行都需要重新考虑另一条自我强加的规则：

that it avoid holding shares of individual securities large enough that it can sway the outcome of investor votes on any future debt restructuring.

避免持有足以影响投资者对未来任何债务重组投票结果的个别证券的股份。

Even with all this, the ECB's ability to cope alone with a serious downturn would be limited.

即便如此，ECB独自应对严重经济衰退的能力也将是有限的。

Even as Mr Draghi assured markets he had the firepower,

即使德拉吉向市场保证他有足够的火力，

he warned that without fiscal support monetary easing risked being slow to boost the economy, with possible unwanted side-effects.

他警告称，没有财政支持，宽松的货币政策可能会有经济增长缓慢的风险，还可能有不必要的副作用。

Negative borrowing costs across many member states make the case for dusting off fiscal tools even more obvious.

许多成员国的负借贷成本使得重启财政工具的理由更加明显。

But Europe's governments guard their ammunition more jealously than central bankers do.

但欧洲政府比央行总裁更加小心翼翼地守护着他们的弹药。