2019年经济学人 熊彼特企业管理专栏--联邦快递的难题(4)（在线收听）

It may be wise to double down this way. However much risk-averse investors may prefer share buy-backs to ambitious capital-spending plans, halting investment could be seen as a flag of surrender by the likes of Amazon. That said, FedEx’s failures—to respond more quickly to the changing e-commerce landscape, to read the runes of geopolitics and to end its stubborn refusal to join its two businesses—reflect a company whose management is long in the tooth. Including Mr Smith, FedEx’s ten top executives average more than three decades at the firm, which is extraordinary.

这样加倍投资也许是明智的。尽管厌恶风险的投资者可能更喜欢股票回购，而不是雄心勃勃的资本支出计划，但停止投资可能被亚马逊等公司视为投降的信号。即便如此，联邦快递的失败——对不断变化的电子商务环境做出更快的反应，阅读地缘政治的符文，结束顽固地拒绝加入两家公司——反映出这家公司的管理层年事已高。包括史密斯在内，联邦快递的十位高管平均在该公司工作了30多年，这是非同寻常的。

It is hard not to misread the changing rules of business when you once rewrote them—even harder when some of your oldest friends are your sounding board. It is clear that the directors have no stomach for replacing their chairman in the foreseeable future. But unless Mr Smith brings in fresh executives, and then listens to them, his days at the business blackjack table should be numbered. Think FredExit, in other words.

一旦你重写了不断变化的商业规则，你很难不误读它们——如果你的一些老朋友是你的参谋，那就更难了。很明显，董事们无意在可预见的将来更换董事长。但除非史密斯引入新的高管，然后听取他们的意见，否则他在企业21点桌上的日子应该屈指可数了。换句话说，想想联邦快递。