2019年经济学人 航空航天业和波音(4)（在线收听）

Then there is Boeing itself. The 737, the first of which took to the air half a century ago, has been a huge seller for the company— the 10,000th rolled off the production line in 2018. In March Goldman Sachs, a bank, estimated that the max may account for a third of Boeing’s overall revenues (including its defence business) in the next five years. Although no max orders have been cancelled so far, Boeing has not booked any new ones either. Further delays, Boeing has admitted, may force it to cut production further—or even shut it down altogether.

还有波音公司本身。波音737于半个世纪前首飞，一直是该公司的畅销机型。2018年，该公司第10000架737飞机下线。今年3月，高盛银行估计，在未来五年内，最高限额可能占到波音总收入的三分之一(包括国防业务)。尽管到目前为止还没有取消任何最大订单，波音也没有预订任何新订单。波音承认，进一步的延误可能会迫使其进一步减产，甚至完全停产。

The fiasco has already led the planemaker to postpone plans to develop a new twin-aisle plane to replace the ageing 757. Its share price has dropped by 25% in the past five months, wiping $62bn from its stockmarket value. It reported a record quarterly loss of $2.9bn in the three months to June, after it set aside $4.9bn for compensation for angry airlines. It may need to allocate more towards other contingencies. Southwest’s pilots have already sued Boeing for lost wages resulting from cancelled flights. Crash victims’ families are also preparing lawsuits.

这一惨败已经导致飞机制造商推迟了开发新的双通道飞机以取代老化的757的计划。在过去的五个月中，它的股价下跌了25%，市值缩水620亿美元。在拨出49亿美元用于补偿愤怒的航空公司之后，该公司报告称，在截至6月份的3个月里，其季度亏损达到创纪录的29亿美元。它可能需要拨出更多资金用于其他紧急情况。西南航空的飞行员已经起诉波音公司，要求其赔偿因航班取消而造成的工资损失。遇难者家属也在准备诉讼。

Boeing can endure the financial pain for a while longer. Its duopoly with Airbus means that, in the short run, airlines and suppliers have little choice but to bear the costs stoically. Boeing’s chief executive, Dennis Muilenburg, appears confident that the max will be flying again before its commercial partners and investors run out of patience.

波音公司可以忍受一段时间的财政痛苦。播音与空客的双头垄断意味着，在短期内，航空公司和供应商别无选择，只能坚忍地承担成本。波音首席执行官丹尼斯?穆伦伯格似乎有信心，在其商业合作伙伴和投资者失去耐心之前，max将再次起飞。

Many in the industry seem to share this conviction—regulators will not, the thinking goes, jeopardise Boeing’s future because the company is too big to fail. Perhaps. But the FAA, roundly criticised for being slower than other regulators to ground the plane, and earlier granting Boeing wide-ranging powers of self-certification, is in no mood to prove them right. 

业内许多人似乎也有同样的认识——他们认为，监管机构不会因为波音太大而不能倒闭而危及其未来。也许。但美国联邦航空局却没有心情证明自己是正确的。该机构曾因比其他监管机构更慢地对这架飞机进行停飞，并在早些时候授予波音广泛的自我认证权力，而受到严厉批评。