2019年经济学人摇摇欲坠的经济(2)（打印版）

The economy remains vulnerable to outside shocks.

经济仍然容易受到外部冲击。

On October 29th America's House of Representatives voted to restrict arms sales to Turkey,

10月29日，美国众议院投票限制向土耳其出售武器，

sanction the country over its purchase of a missile-defence system from Russia, and investigate Mr Erdogan's wealth.

对土耳其从俄罗斯购买导弹防御系统进行制裁，并调查埃尔多安的财富。

Lawmakers also passed a motion recognising the Ottoman slaughter of Armenians in 1915 as genocide.

议员们还通过了一项议案，承认1915年奥斯曼帝国对亚美尼亚人的屠杀是种族灭绝。

Though the sanctions package is unlikely to become law, relations with America are at their worst in decades.

尽管制裁方案不太可能成为法律，但与美国的关系正处于几十年来最糟糕的时期。

Another source of anxiety is an investigation in New York into

另一个焦虑的来源是纽约的一项调查，

whether Halkbank, a Turkish state lender, circumvented American sanctions against Iran.

调查土耳其国有银行Halkbank是否规避了美国对伊朗的制裁。

In an indictment unsealed on October 15th,

在10月15日公布的一份起诉书中，

prosecutors allege that senior Turkish officials took millions of dollars in bribes to keep the scheme running.

检察官指控土耳其高级官员收受数百万美元贿赂以维持该计划的运行。

A former Halkbank executive who was convicted for playing a role in the operation returned to Turkey this summer after two years in prison.

一名因参与该行动而被定罪的前Halkbank高管在入狱两年后于今年夏天回到土耳其。

On October 21st he was appointed head of the Istanbul stock exchange.

10月21日，他被任命为伊斯坦布尔证交所负责人。

Turkey expects growth of 0.5% this year, and 5% in 2020.

土耳其预计今年经济增长0.5%，2020年增长5%。

If interest rates are cut further in pursuit of that goal, the country risks another currency crisis.

如果为了实现这一目标而进一步降低利率，土耳其将面临另一场货币危机。

The central bank has already burned through billions of dollars in reserves to prop up the lira.

为了支撑里拉，央行已经烧尽了数十亿美元的储备。

It may no longer have the means to defend the currency in the face of sanctions, or if global interest rates rise.

在面临制裁或全球利率上升的情况下，土耳其可能不再有能力捍卫其货币。

Turks have run to the dollar for safety. Foreign-currency deposits at Turkish banks have surged.

土耳其人为了安全纷纷转向美元。土耳其银行的外币存款激增。

And lack of independence makes monetary policymakers' job harder. "They have a credibility issue," says Kerim Rota, a former banker.

缺乏独立性使得货币政策制定者的工作更加困难。前银行家克里姆罗塔表示，“他们有信誉问题。”

Interest rates will need to be higher to control inflation than if the market believed the central bank was in charge, he says.

他表示，要想控制通胀，利率必须高于市场认为由央行负责时的水平。

But no one now thinks it can raise rates without Mr Erdogan's say-so.

但是现在没有人觉得，没有埃尔多安的许可，它可以提高利率。