2019年经济学人 压力之下(2)（在线收听）

压力之下(2)

Yet oil markets have shrugged it all off.

然而，石油市场对此不屑一顾。

"In the past such geopolitical tensions gave a boost to oil prices," says Fatih Birol, the head of the IEA.

IEA署长法蒂·比罗尔表示，“以前这种地缘政治紧张曾推高油价。”

The price of Brent crude has subsided from a high of nearly $75 in April to around $60 today.

布伦特原油价格已从4月份近75美元的高点回落至目前的约60美元。

One reason is that America's frackers have continued to pump more oil.

其中一个原因是美国的水力压裂组织在继续开采更多的石油。

The country's daily output in September was 12% above last year's average.

9月，该国的日产量比去年平均水平高出12%。

It is also because economic growth has slowed, with oil demand suffering not just in Japan

另一个原因是经济增长放缓，石油需求受到影响的不仅仅是日本

but in India and South-East Asia, where it was expected to grow strongly.

印度和东南亚也受到影响，曾有预测这些国家石油需求将强劲增长。

Next year economic growth may tick up. Investors are pressing American shale companies to reduce spending and boost profits.

明年经济增长可能加快。投资者正在敦促美国页岩油公司减少支出，提高利润。

That would result in flatter production and, in turn, help nudge prices higher.

这将导致产量下降，进而推高油价。

But new supply elsewhere looks set to push prices in the other direction.

但其他地方的新供应似乎将推动价格向另一个方向上涨。

ExxonMobil is ramping up production off the coast of Guyana.

埃克森美孚公司正在圭亚那海岸外提高产量。

Brazil's attempt to auction new offshore leases this month was a failure—supermajors, such as ExxonMobil and BP, declined to bid.

本月，巴西试图拍卖新的离岸租约，但以失败告终—埃克森美孚和英国石油等大型石油公司拒绝投标。

Yet investments already made offshore mean that by 2021 Brazil's crude production may be 18% higher than this year, according to IHS Markit.

但根据IHS Markit，已经在海外进行的投资意味着，到2021年，巴西的原油产量可能会比今年高出18%。

Norway will also see a surge in output.

挪威的石油产量也将大幅增长。

Notwithstanding its announcement in October that its sovereign-wealth fund

虽然挪威在10月份宣布其主权财富基金

would sell its holdings in oil exploration and production companies,

将出售其在石油勘探和生产公司的股份，

the country itself is expected to increase production markedly in the coming years.

但该国本身也有望在未来几年显著提高其产量。

Its state-backed energy giant, Equinor, said in October that Johan Sverdrup, a giant new oilfield in the North Sea, had begun producing crude.

其国家能源巨头Equinor在10月表示，北海的大型新油田Johan Sverdrup已经开始生产原油。

The broadened OPEC alliance must now decide whether to hold at the reductions agreed to last year, or to cut harder.

扩张后的OPEC联盟现在必须决定是维持去年达成的减产协议，还是加大减产力度。

The current arrangement may be insufficient to keep Brent crude above $60 a barrel.

目前的协议或许不足以将布伦特原油保持在每桶60美元以上。

Yet there may be little appetite for dramatically lower production targets.

但人们可能对大幅降低产量目标没什么兴趣。

Aramco, Saudi Arabia's state-backed oil company, plans to list some of its shares in mid-December, shortly after OPEC's meeting.

沙特政府支持的沙特阿美石油公司计划在OPEC会议后不久的12月中旬上市部分股票。

Any agreement for a big cut in the kingdom's output would lower estimates for Aramco's earnings,

桑福德伯恩斯坦的Neil Beveridge指出，任何大幅削减沙特石油产量的协议，

which would suppress its valuation, points out Neil Beveridge of Bernstein.

都将降低沙特阿美石油公司的盈利预期，从而压低其估值。

On the other hand, he says, "the worst thing that could happen to Aramco would be to see the listing go ahead and see the oil price collapse."

另一方面，他说道，“对沙特阿美石油公司来说，最糟糕的可能是上市继续进行，然而油价暴跌。”

This has been a dramatic year on oil markets. December could bring further plot twists.

对于石油市场来说，今年是充满戏剧性的一年。12月可能会出现更多情节转折。