2018年经济学人 美国经济:刺激的涟漪效应(1)（在线收听）

The proposed tax cuts are paid for by bigger budget deficits, a fiscal stimulus that is ill-timed given the business cycle.

计划中的减税要由更大的预算赤字来买单，这是一种在给定的商业周期下不合时宜的财政刺激。

But the tax cuts favour companies (which in aggregate are generating bumper profits) or rich individuals (who save more of their income).

但是，减税利好公司（它们整体上正在产生越来越大的利润)和富人(他们把更多的收入投入储蓄）。

That means the ripple effects from the stimulus are likely to be small.

这意味着刺激的涟漪效应可能微乎其微。

The risk that the Federal Reserve tightens too much is aggravated by a change in the make-up of its rate-setting committee, which will take on a more hawkish tinge from next year.

美联储收得太紧的风险因为其利率设定委员会组成的变化而加大了。从明年开始，美联储利率设定委员会将带有一种更加鹰派的色彩。

Indeed, nothing Mr Trump does is likely to have a bigger effect on the economy than his choices to fill Fed vacancies.

实际上，在特朗普所作所为中，没有那件事能比他填补美联储空缺的选择对经济产生更大的影响。

But the tightening so far—the Fed raised rates by another quarter of a percentage point this week, to a range of 1.25-1.5%—has been appropriate.

但是，到目前为止，这种收紧——本周，美联储将利率又提高了四分之一个百分点，使之达到1.25—1.5之间——是适当的。

As for financial imbalances, pockets of excessive leverage exist.

至于金融失衡，大量的过度杠杆是存在的。

But the stockmarket has reached new highs as real interest rates have fallen: yields have dropped across all asset classes, from property in big cities to junk bonds.

但是，随着实际利率下降，股市创下一个又一个新高：从大城市的房地产到垃圾债券，所有的资产类别的收益率都下降了。

Asset prices may be high, but there is a logic to their ascent.

资产价格或许高了，但是，它们的上涨是有逻辑的。

A mature cycle also has pluses.

到期的周期也有好处。

Investment is one.

投资即是其一。

A global upswing in fixed capital spending is already in train, led by America but not confined to it.

一种全球性的固定资产开支上升早已在进行之中，它是由美国引领的，但不限于美国。

It is fuelled in part by a drop in uncertainty about the global economy.

这部分是因为有关全球经济不确定性的减少而引起的。

Businesses that have been reluctant to make long-term bets when one or other of the engines of the world economy has been sputtering are now more willing to put their money to work.

如今，在世界经济引擎中的一个或另一个一直处于萎靡不振时不愿投下长期赌注的商界更愿意让他们的钱去运转。