2018年经济学人 世界经济:特朗普别“撞车”(3)（在线收听）

The bigger issue is the vast disruption that would occur in the transition to more autarky.

更大的问题在于，在向更自给自足的过渡中会发生巨大的混乱。

America's economy is configured for designing iPhones, not assembling their components;

美国的经济适用于设计苹果手机，而不是装配其零件；

the innards of its cars and planes cross national borders many times before the final product is ready.

在最终汽车和飞机的成品做好前，其内部结构要多次越过美国边境。

Faced with tariffs, firms have to redirect labour and capital to replace imports.

面对关税，企业不得不重新调整劳动力和资本来替代进口。

Some analysts attribute Mr Trump's presidency to the economic shock from trade with China after 2000.

某些分析家将特朗普当选总统归因于2000年后与中国的贸易往来带来的经济冲击。

The turmoil caused by reversing globalisation would be just as bad.

全球化逆转带来的混乱也同样糟糕。

One estimate puts American job losses from a trade war at 550,000.

据估计，美国因贸易战而失业的人数达5.5万人。

The hit to China would also be severe.

中国遭受的打击也很严重。

Any adjustment would be prolonged by Mr Trump's unpredictability.

任何调整都会因特朗普的不可预测性而延期。

Without knowing whether tariffs might rise or fall, what company would think it wise to invest in a new supply chain?

在不知道关税会上升还是下降的情况下，哪家公司会认为投资于新的供应链是明智之选呢？

It is difficult to imagine such a realignment without a global recession.

如果没有全球经济衰退，很难想象这样的调整。

Tariffs temporarily push up inflation, making it harder for central banks to cushion the blow.

关税暂时性加大了通货膨胀，这使得央行更难减轻冲击。

The flight to safety accompanying any global downturn would keep the dollar strong, even as America's fiscal stimulus peters out after 2019.

即使美国的财政刺激在2019年之后逐渐停息，伴随着全球经济衰退的求稳之路仍会使美元保持坚挺。

So be wary.

因此要小心谨慎。

The trade war may yet be contained, to the benefit of the world economy.

为了世界经济的利益，贸易战可能还会被遏制。

But America is the engine of global growth. In Mr Trump, a dangerous driver is at the wheel.

但是美国是世界经济的引擎。在特朗普身上，就好像看到了一个高危司机在开车。