2018年经济学人 非洲萨赫勒地区成圣战组织新基地(1)（在线收听）

Security in Africa

非洲安全

Jihad's new base

圣战组织新基地

Violent Islamists are trying to take over a huge part of Africa. The West should help stop them

暴力的伊斯兰主义试图接管非洲大面积领土。西方国家应制止。

There has been no “Mission Accomplished” moment celebrating the defeat of Islamic State (IS) in Syria and Iraq.

在叙利亚和伊拉克并没有庆祝击败伊斯兰国的“任务完成”时刻。

But the American and other allied troops who helped crush IS are quietly heading home,

但是美国和其他帮助镇压伊斯兰国的同盟军队都悄悄地回去了，

and their generals are packing away their counter-insurgency field manuals.

将军们把反叛乱战地手册都收起来了。

They deserve credit for a job bravely done.

他们因其临难不避的所作所为应受美誉。

However, IS’s brutal ideology is not dead.

然而，伊斯兰国的野蛮意识形态并未消亡。

A form of it is taking root in and around the Sahel.

这种意识形态的表现形式已经根植于萨赫勒地区及其周边。

Even at the best of times this arid, sparsely populated belt of land that runs along the southern fringe of the Sahara desert is poor and badly governed.

撒哈拉沙漠南部沿线地带本就干旱而又人烟稀少，即使在好年头，也是民困国贫且管理不善。

Some countries broadly along this belt, such as Somalia or the Central African Republic, have not seen peace for decades.

这个地带的某些国家，如索马里或中非共和国，已数十年战火不断。

In the past few years the sparks of jihad have been struck in this tinderbox.

在过去几年间，圣战的火花已在这个火药桶点燃。

In lethality, the jihadists in Africa have already overtaken their Iraqi comrades.

非洲的圣战分子的杀伤力早就超过了伊拉克的圣战分子。

Last year they killed some 10,000 people, mostly civilians.

去年，非洲圣战分子杀害了约1万人，其中大部分为平民。

That compares with about 2,000 civilian deaths in Iraq and Syria.

同期，伊拉克和叙利亚死亡的平民人数约为2000人。

They are also more numerous.

非洲圣战分子的数量也更多。

Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), a Nigerian jihadist group aligned with IS, has some 3,500 fighters—

伊斯兰国西非省（ISWAP）是与伊斯兰国结盟的尼日利亚圣战组织，约有3500名武装分子——

probably more than the original IS now has in Iraq and -Syria.

数量可能比现在位于伊拉克和叙利亚的原始伊斯兰国更多。

It is trying to build a “caliphate” in remote border towns.

伊斯兰国西非省正试图在偏远的边境城镇建立“哈里发国”。

War-weary Western voters have little appetite for fresh entanglements in distant conflicts.

厌倦战争的西方选民并无兴趣纠缠于遥远外邦的冲突。

And so far, the threat the Sahel poses to Western interests is limited.

到目前为止，萨赫勒地区对于西方的威胁是有限的。

But it is growing.

但这种威胁正在滋生。

Jihadists connected to al-Qaeda and IS have attacked Western embassies, hotels and oil facilities in the Sahel.

与基地组织和伊斯兰国有联系的圣战分子袭击了西方国家的使领馆、酒店和萨赫勒地区的石油设施。

Some with ties to the region have struck in Europe, too.

而与萨赫勒地区有联系的圣战分子已经袭击了欧洲地区。

A suicide-bombing in 2017 that claimed 23 lives in Manchester has been linked to Libya.

2017年，在曼彻斯特，一起自杀式爆炸导致23人死亡，此事与利比亚有关。

So too was an attack on a Christmas market in Berlin in 2016 that killed 12 people.

2016年，柏林圣诞市场发生袭击事件，造成12人死亡。

The risks of more such attacks will grow if jihadists are allowed to hold territory and establish camps, as al-Qaeda did in Afghanistan before September 11th 2001.

若仍不阻止圣战分子拓土扎营，正如2001年9月11日之前基地组织在阿富汗的肆无忌惮，此类攻击的危险还会愈演愈烈。

Moreover, jihadism in the Sahel destabilises countries with some of the world’s fastest-growing populations.

而且，萨赫勒地区的圣战主义使世界上人口增长最快的国家不稳定。

If they fall into chaos, Europe can expect millions more refugees.

如果这些国家陷入混乱，欧洲就会遭遇数百万难民。