2018年经济学人 非洲萨赫勒地区成圣战组织新基地(2)（在线收听）

The rise of jihadism in Africa is rooted in bad governance,

非洲圣战主义起源于管理不善，

exacerbated by population pressure and climate change.

也与人口压力和气候变化的影响有关。

When the state is corrupt and predatory, the insurgents’ promise of religious justice can sound appealing.

当国家贪污腐败、掠夺成性时，叛乱分子对于宗教正义的承诺可能听起来很诱人。

There is not much outsiders can do to fix this.

外界对此也无能为力。

Africa’s governments need to step up to their responsibilities.

非洲各国政府需承担起各自的责任。

However, outsiders can help contain the jihadists,

然而，外界可以帮助控制圣战分子，

stopping them conquering turf or building anything resembling a state.

并阻止圣战分子扩大地盘或建立任何类似国家的组织。

This can be done with a light touch, by modest forces, at a reasonable cost.

可以用柔和的方式、适度的军事力量，在合理的代价范围内做这件事。

France already has about 4,500 troops in Africa; America has about 6,000.

在非洲，法国早就有4500人的军队；美国则有6000人的军队。

These are not many boots on the ground in so vast a region.

在如此广阔的区域，这些地面部队并不算多。

Yet they are having an outsize effect by training, supporting and providing crucial intelligence to the African armies that are doing almost all the fighting.

但是，这些军队却发挥了巨大作用，训练、支持几乎参与所有战斗的非洲军队，并为其提供重要情报。

Western forces are helping to hold a fragile region together.

西方力量正帮助团结一个脆弱的地区。

Alas, that appears not to be a priority for President Donald Trump.

唉，这似乎不是唐纳德·特朗普总统的首要任务。

Since the deaths of four American soldiers in Niger in October, American troops have been ordered to take fewer risks.

自十月份尼日尔四名美国士兵死亡，美国军队似乎接到命令要少去冒险。

Their commanders have been told to plan for a possible cut of up to 50% in the number of special forces assigned to the region.

美国指挥官已经接到命令，计划将派往该地区的特种部队数量减少50%。

The signs are that Mr Trump is about to repeat Bill Clinton’s mistake.

有迹象表明特朗普会重复比尔·克林顿的错误。

Mr Clinton pulled out of Somalia in 1993, as soon as dead Americans appeared on television.

1993年，电视上播出美国士兵死亡后，克林顿命令美国撤离索马里。

Somalia later collapsed into anarchy and became a haven for jihadists and pirates.

随后，索马里陷入无政府状态，成为圣战分子和海盗的避风港。

Stopping the Sahel from falling apart would be easier than putting it back together.

阻止萨赫勒地区分崩离析要比重建容易得多。

Western troops are insurance against disaster.

西方军队是防灾保险。

Keep paying the premiums.

保费应继续支付。