2018年经济学人（在线收听）

自由兑换:欧元区的经常账户盈余(3)

The current-account deficits in the euro zone's crisis countries were of the worrying kind. That they have shrunk or reversed is comforting.

欧元区危机国家的经常账户赤字是属于让人担心的那一种。他们的赤字已有收缩，趋势扭转也令人欣慰。

This has happened largely through increases in exports, suggesting that competitiveness has improved.

这种现象主要发生在增加出口的过程中，意味着竞争力提高了。

(Much of Ireland's huge surplus reflects multinationals domiciling their intellectual property in the country

（爱尔兰巨额盈余反映出跨国公司选择在爱尔兰对他们的知识产权进行注册

to take advantage of its low corporate taxes, boosting its exports.)

以此享受这个国家低额的公司税，促进其出口。）

In Greece, where eight years of crisis and austerity have squeezed consumption and investment,

在希腊，八年危机和紧缩压榨了国家的消费和投资，

imports have borne a greater part of the adjustment. They are more than 25% lower than in 2007.

进口也受到大调整。相比2007年，出口减少超过25%。

The adjustment was particularly painful because, as members of a single-currency bloc with low inflation,

调整尤为痛苦，因为作为低通货膨胀单一货币区成员，

crisis-hit countries had to devalue their real exchange rates by cutting wages and domestic demand and employment.

遭遇危机的国家不得不通过降低工资、国内需求以及就业来贬值他们的实际汇率。

And the zone's growing aggregate surplus points to another exacerbating factor: Germany's excess of saving over investment kept rising,

该区域增长的总盈余指向了另一个激发因素：由于德国向欧元区以外的国家增加贷款和出口，

as it increased lending and exports to countries outside the zone.

德国储蓄超过投资的部分还在继续增长。

If instead Germany had expanded domestic demand, others' relative price adjustments could have been less painful.

如果德国扩大国内需求，那么其他相对价格调整或许就没有那么痛苦了。

A paper by Olivier Blanchard, Christopher Erceg and Jesper Linde, published in 2015,

奥利维尔·布兰查德、克里斯托弗以及杰斯珀·林德于2015年发表的论文发现

finds that higher German inflation could make other countries' goods and services relatively cheap, making it easier for crisis countries to adjust.

德国更高的膨胀可能会让其他国家的商品和服务相对便宜，使其他危机国家的调整更加容易。

The effect is particularly strong when interest rates have to remain low to stimulate the economy.

在需要将利率维持在低水平以刺激经济的情况下，这种效果尤为强烈。

Some German economists, notably at the Bundesbank, have long argued that this is irrelevant:

一些德国经济学家，尤其是德国中央银行的经济学家一直以来都争辩称两者之间毫不相干：

it is up to profligate southerners, not prudent Germans, to adjust; and fiscal expansion will not boost demand for euro-area imports directly.

调整取决于恣意挥霍的南方人，而非节俭的德国人；并且财政扩张不会直接促进欧元区的进口需求。