PBS高端访谈:教育依然是拯救人类的法宝（在线收听）

JUDY WOODRUFF: Now we continue our special look at The Future of Work. As automation spreads through the American economy, experts say its impacts will be uneven. Some key factors include geography and race, but perhaps the most important determinant, education. John Yang has a report from California. It's part of our weekly education story on Making the Grade.

JOHN YANG: When Aldo Galindo was growing up in San Bernardino, California, his father's message about college was simple.

ALDO GALINDO, College Student: He would always tell me, to go to school, you better go to school, you have to go to school. It wasn't an option. It was more like, you have to.

JOHN YANG: Aldo remembers his dad coming home exhausted after working 12-hour days as a cook at a local restaurant.

JOEL GALINDO, California (through translator): My children have noticed how hard we have worked. I know they will always have to work. But with a degree and a profession, they live more comfortably, live a better life than the ones we have had.

JOHN YANG: Now 21, Aldo commutes 40 minutes round-trip every day from his parents' house to California State University-San Bernardino. He's a junior studying computer systems. He wants to develop video games and work with virtual reality. By going to college, he's breaking barriers, not only in his own family, but in this region, where nearly half of all adults have no education beyond high school.

ALDO GALINDO: There's a lot of hardships that come around here. And a lot of students do experience that. I'm the first generation. They taught me to take every opportunity you have offered to you. So that's what I'm doing, taking every opportunity.

JOHN YANG: In the coming years, boosting educational opportunities could determine whether this region east of Los Angeles thrives or struggles. Known as the Inland Empire, it's home to about 4.5 million people, more than half of them Hispanic. Looming over the terrain of mountains and desert is the spread of automation, robotic machines performing simple repetitive tasks now performed by humans. For businesses, it promises to cut costs and boost productivity. For workers, especially the less educated, it threatens to take their jobs.

JOHANNES MOENIUS, University of Redlands: What does that all mean for the Inland Empire?

JOHN YANG: Johannes Moenius is sounding the alarm. He teaches business at the University of Redlands, southeast of San Bernardino, and studies the potential effects of job automation.

JOHANNES MOENIUS: It's a very strange situation. We're in the place where we have record low unemployment. The nation's factories are humming. The logistics sector is booming. But this train can also run at high speed against a wall.

JOHN YANG: The numbers tell the story. Moenius' research found that 63 percent of the jobs in the Inland Empire could be automated in the future. And Hispanics are 25 percent more likely than whites to hold those jobs. The research also found that education is the key factor. Someone with a bachelor's degree runs less than a 50 percent risk of job automation. But, in this region, only 9 percent of Hispanics fall into that category. The Inland Empire's economy is dominated by industries that could be heavily automated in the future: fast-food restaurants, office and administrative services, and, crucially, distribution centers. It's just over an hour from the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Railroad tracks and interstate highways crisscross the terrain. Warehouses dot the landscape. Amazon alone has 13 fulfillment centers in the region, and just announced plans for a 14th.

JOHANNES MOENIUS: I just can't see that San Bernardino will come out fine in this scenario. We attract more of the industries that are thriving right now that mostly employ people with lower educational level, so we're worsening the problem by the hour.

PAUL GRANILLO, Inland Empire Economic Partnership: We live in a different world.

JOHN YANG: Paul Granillo, head of the Inland Empire Economic Partnership, brings together leaders in education, business and government.

PAUL GRANILLO: Technology now turns over every 17 months. So if I'm trained on a machine, 17 months later, you're going to have to retrain me because there's going to be a new machine. That's awfully quick. And our traditional education system has not been able to create curriculum that fast. My role is to get everybody to come out of their corner, right, not go into being defensive and not going in to being accusatory, which is usually the educator saying, well, we have all these programs, and the employer saying, well, I'm not getting what I want out the education system.

JOHN YANG: Granillo is worried about automation's effect on his region. He's seen it triple the output of some area fulfillment centers with only double the number of workers.

PAUL GRANILLO: I think automation is wonderful, and I'm a user of automation. But if it's only going to be that some regions are going to win and others are going to lose, I do believe that then it does become a moral issue. It becomes an ethical issue.

JOHN YANG: He agrees education is the key, but that doesn't just mean a college degree. One example, the Industrial Technical Learning Center, or InTech, which provides training and professional development. Housed in the former administrative building of a San Bernardino steel mill, it's a partnership between Chaffey Community College and California Steel Industries. There's usually no cost to participants, thanks to federal, state, and local grants and contracts. Director Sandra Sisco says InTech is designed by industry for industry, with an eye on the future.

SANDRA SISCO, Industrial Technical Learning Center: Somebody has to repair and maintain the robotic arms and anything that has to do with automation. Automation involves mechanics. It involves electrical. So if you're in the electrical and mechanical field, those are the core middle skills that you need to understand the next level.

JOHN YANG: Erick Martinez is one of the more than 1,700 people InTech has trained since opening in 2016. After being laid off three times in five years from office and warehouse jobs, he wanted a career change. He earned multiple certifications through InTech and works at California Steel.

ERICK MARTINEZ, InTech Trainer: If I can't use you know my manual skills because a robot or an algorithm is going to take my job, there is there is that uncertainty of, what am I going to do? But then you get exposed to, hey, we can train you to troubleshoot a lot of these changes that are happening, a lot of things that are replacing your job. Then you can be one step ahead of that.

JOHN YANG: Back at Cal State, Aldo Galindo is trying to do his part to push more people, especially Hispanics, into higher education. He works with education Professor Enrique Murillo on a program called Latino Education and Advocacy Days. It reaches out to parents and hosts college fairs to encourage Latinos to pursue their education.

ENRIQUE MURILLO, California State University-San Bernardino: We can't just do what they call curbside service, right? A lot of parents, they just come, drop off their kid and say, OK, there you go, take my child. It doesn't work like that. The competitive nature of the economy in the United States is going to depend heavily, as it is here in the Inland Empire, on the educational outcomes of Latinos.

JOHN YANG: And first-generation college students like Aldo Galindo may be key to those outcomes. For the PBS NewsHour, I'm John Yang in San Bernardino, California.

朱迪·伍德拉夫：欢迎收听今天的《未来的工作》。随着自动化普及美国经济的各个角落，有专家称，其影响将会是不均衡的。一些主要因素包括地理和种族，但或许最重要的决定因素还是教育。下面请听约翰·杨从加州发回的报道。欢迎收听周更的《通向成功之路》之教育系列报道。

约翰·杨：奥尔多·加林多在加州的圣贝纳迪诺长大。从小，他父亲向他传输的与大学有关的观念十分简单。

奥尔多·加林多，大学生：我父亲总是告诉我——去上学吧，最好还是上学，你一定要读书呀。这不是选择题，而是必做题。

约翰·杨：奥尔多记得他父亲每天都要工作12小时候才能筋疲力尽地回家。他父亲是当地某餐厅的厨师。

乔尔·加林多，加州（原话经翻译）：我的孩子们都知道我们工作有多累。我知道他们早晚有一天也要步入职场。但如果有文凭、有专业领域，他们就能过上更舒适、更好的生活，会比我们强。

约翰·杨：今年21岁的奥尔多·加林多每天的往返通勤时间是40分钟，他要从父母的假里感到圣贝纳迪诺的加利福尼亚州立大学。他现在大三，专业是计算机系统。他想研发视频游戏，并用到虚拟现实的技术。上大学这件事让他突破了诸多障碍，不仅是家里的障碍，也有当地的障碍。因为当地近半数的成年人学历都是高中或以下。

奥尔多·加林多：这里的人们都有自己的艰难困苦。很多学生都深有体会。我是第一代子女。他们教会我抓住每个自己能争取到的机会。而我现在也是这样做的——抓住每个机会。

约翰·杨：未来数年中，不断增长的教育机会可以决定洛杉矶东部的这个地方是兴旺发达还是苦苦挣扎。这里又名内陆帝国，生活着近450万人，而其中半数以上都是西班牙裔美国人。自动化正在普及大片山区和沙漠，而具有机器人功能的机器也在执行着本来由人类完成的重复性工作。对于企业来说，自动化可以削减成本并提高生产率。对于员工来说，尤其是教育程度不那么高的员工，自动化造成了夺走他们饭碗的风险。

约翰尼斯·莫比斯，雷德兰兹大学：这对于内陆帝国来说意味着什么呢？

约翰·杨：约翰尼斯·莫比斯发出了警示。他在圣贝纳迪诺东南部的雷德兰兹大学教商务，他研究了工作自动化的可能影响。

约翰尼斯·莫比斯：这种境况十分奇怪。现在的就业率达到史上新低。我们国家的工厂都朝不保夕。物流业正在迅速发展，但速度太快，也可能会遇到困难。

约翰·杨：数字可以表明一些事情。莫比斯的研究发现，内陆帝国63%的工作未来都将是自动化的。而西班牙裔美国人保住饭碗的可能性比美国白人高25%。该研究还发现，教育是关键因素。本科学历因自动化而丢掉饭碗的可能性要低50%。而该地区只有9%的西班牙裔美国人属于这个范畴。内陆帝国的经济由多个行业主导，而这些行业未来都有可能实现很高程度的自动化，比如：快餐厅、办公及行政服务部门，尤其是配销中心。从洛杉矶港口和长滩港市之间只有1个多小时的车程。铁轨和州际公路在该地区交叉而行，到处都有仓库。光是亚马逊自己在该地区就有13个运营中心，而且已经宣布计划要建立第14个运营中心。

约翰尼斯·莫比斯：我觉得圣贝纳迪诺在这样的大背景下很难熬过自动化的冲击。我们吸引的行业大多现在都很繁荣，而他们雇佣的员工基本上学历都不是很高。所以，拖下去，情况只会更加不利。

保罗·格兰尼，内陆帝国经济伙伴项目：我们住在不同的世界。

约翰·杨：保罗·格兰尼是内陆帝国经济伙伴项目的负责人。他集结了教育、商业、政府领域的多位领袖。

保罗·格兰尼：每17个月，科技就要改头换面。所以，假设我在机器领域得到了培训，那么17个月后，就要对我进行再培训，因为会有新机器出现。科技的变化速度极快。而我们的传统教育系统创办相应课程的速度却跟不上。我的职责是让大家走出封闭的小世界，不要太过戒备，也不要满腔抱怨。一般是教育家说：我们现在有这些这些这些项目。然后雇主就会说：我从教育体系中得不到我想要的。

约翰·杨：格兰尼担心自动化会对自己所在的地区造成影响。格兰尼已经注意到，自动化的出现让一些地区的运营中心产出量增长到原来的3倍，但所需的员工数量只是以前的2倍。

保罗·格兰尼：我认为自动化很棒，我本人也会用到自动化。但如果各州之间一定是零和博弈的话，我确实觉得这是一个道德问题、伦理论题了。

约翰·杨：他也认同一点，那就是教育是关键，但这不代表教育就是大学文凭。举个例子，工业技术学习中心（InTech）可以提供培训和专业技能培养。位于圣贝纳迪诺某钢厂的一个前行政办公楼，这里开展这一个合作项目，合作双方是查菲社区大学和加州钢铁工业公司。参与者是不需要支出任何成本的，这要感谢联邦政府、州政府、当地补助、合同。主管桑德拉·斯科表示，InTech是行业建立起来的，也会服务于行业。它的着力点在于未来。

桑德拉·斯科，InTech：有人要修理、维护机械臂，这些都跟自动化脱不开干系。自动化的题中之意就有机械，就有电气。所以，如果你是电气和机械行业的从业人员，那么这些都是你接下来需要了解的核心技能。

约翰·杨：包括埃里克·马丁内斯在内，InTech培训了1700多人。而InTech仅成立于2016年。5年里失业3次，期间他做过办公室和库房的工作。从那以后，他就想要改行了。他通过InTech的培训获得了多个证书，并在加州钢铁工业公司工作。

埃里克·马丁内斯，InTech培训师：如果我不能用自己的技能，而原因是机器人或者某种算法要取代我的工作，那么我就会有一种不确定性，不知道自己要做什么。但如果你愿意接受改变，我们就可以给你培训，让你应对正在发生的变化以及很多可能取代你工作的事情。这样就能掌握先机了。

约翰·杨：在加州州立大学，奥尔多·加林多正在为推动更多人加入高等教育中，尤其是西班牙裔美国人。他与教育领域的教授恩里克·穆里洛一道致力于一个名为“拉丁教育与推广日”的项目。该项目会联系到许多父母，也会举办多次大学博览会，以鼓励拉丁美洲人追求教育的发展。

恩里克·穆里洛，加州州立大学-圣贝纳迪诺：我们不能做低贱又重复的工作。很多父母只是把孩子放在我们这儿，然后说：好啦，把孩子带走吧。这样是不行的。美国经济的本质竞争力还是要取决于拉丁美洲人的教育输出情况，就像在内陆帝国一样。

约翰·杨：包括奥尔多·加林多在内的第一代大学生可能是教育输出的关键。感谢收听约翰·杨从加州圣贝纳迪诺发回的《新闻一小时》报道。