PBS高端访谈:对特朗普的弹劾将公开化（在线收听）

Megan Thompson: For more on the impeachment inquiry, NewsHour Weekend Special Correspondent Jeff Greenfield joins me now from Santa Barbara. So, Jeff, we've had this vote to formalize that procedure. So what are we going to see now?

Jeff Greenfield: Sometime in the next couple of weeks we're going to see public televised hearings. We're going to actually get to see the depositions that some of the witnesses gave in closed testimony. And then the question is, who are we going to see in public? Will we be hearing from Lieutenant Colonel Vindman, the national security adviser on Ukraine, who was quite alarmed by what he heard on the call? Are we going to have John Bolton, the former national security adviser, who was also quite alarmed by what he heard? He said he will only testify if compelled to by a court.

And then the question will be, who will Republicans try to bring on to attempt to undercut the central story of the president asking for a quid pro quo in return for military aid? So. But it is going to be public.

Megan Thompson: I mean, what impact could that have? Does this represent a risk in some sense or an opportunity for Democrats?

Jeff Greenfield: We get a clue from the fact that under the rules, each side is going to have 45 minutes of block time to present their case and talk to their witnesses. And the questioning is going to be done by staff attorneys, not by Congressmen. And that means the Democrats have realized that this back and forth, five minutes each, muddles the story. They want a clear, coherent story to present, if impeachment ever comes, as it probably will to a full vote. The risk would be if the Republicans can get people to testify who basically say this whole narrative is exaggerated or false.

Megan Thompson: Just this morning, we saw a new Fox News poll come out that said 49 percent of voters support impeachment. Do we have reason to think that some of this partisanship in Congress might start to erode?

Jeff Greenfield: I really think that even with the slight erosion in support for Trump among Republicans, it's down, but it's 78 percent, when you look at the risk that Republican Senators up for reelection may be taking, they might want to appeal to more moderate voters who were less happy about Trump. But do they risk alienating that firm base? So that part of the partisanship, I just think is not going to fade barring some miracle. One other point. If this gets to a trial in the Senate in January, you have six Democratic senators running for president who are going to be, in effect, chained to their desks just as the climax to the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary approach. And I doubt that Republican Leader McConnell is going to want to do them any favors. So that's another way that partisanship may play a role in what we see.

Megan Thompson: None of this is happening in a vacuum, of course. I wanted to ask you, historically, when we look at other impeachment inquiries in the last century, how have things like the economy and approval ratings played a role?

Jeff Greenfield: One of the things that doomed Nixon was in in 1974, as the impeachment waters were rising, the economy was headed into recession and the stock market was in freefall. By contrast, the economy under Bill Clinton in the late 90s was as good as it has been in the entire 20th century. And so his approval ratings, even during impeachment, never dropped below 60 percent. In Trump's case, his approval ratings generally are lower than they should be given the state of the economy. So you could say that if something were to turn in the next couple of months, if the economy were really to sour, that could be a real problem for Trump maintaining the base that he does have.

Megan Thompson: All right, Jeff Greenfield, thank you so much, as always, for being here.

Jeff Greenfield: Nice to be here.

梅根·汤普森：本期将来了解一下关于弹劾调查的事情。今天邀请《新闻一小时》周末档特约记者杰夫·格林菲尔德从圣巴巴拉市与我们连线。现在已经通过投票将弹劾流程正式化了。那么接下来会有什么好戏上演呢？

杰夫·格林菲尔德：未来几周里，我们或许会看到电视直播听证会。我们会看到证人在闭门证词中提供口供。那么问题就来了：我们会看到谁呢？温德曼中校是否会出庭作证呢？温德曼中校是关于乌克兰事宜的国家安全顾问，关于温德曼听到的电话内容，他自己已经如惊弓之鸟了。博尔顿是否会出庭作证呢？博尔顿是前国家安全顾问，他跟温德曼的情况一样。博尔顿说自己只有在法庭强制的情况下才会出庭作证。那么又有一个问题出现了：共和党会派谁来转移人们对特朗普电话门事件的注意力，从而换取军事援助作为条件呢？这件事是要公之于众的。

梅根·汤普森：我想说的是这件事的影响。这件事对于民主党来说是威胁还是机会呢？

杰夫·格林菲尔德：在当前的规则下，各方全程都有45分钟的时间提起诉讼并跟当时人交流。我们从这个当前规则中获得了一条线索。审讯将由法务专员来完成，而不是由议员来完成。也就是说，民主党已经意识到到时候会是双方各有5分钟的时间来和稀泥，如此循环往复。如果弹劾真地有来的那一天，那他们希望呈现出清晰连贯的故事。而有可能弹劾的事情会全票通过。风险在于：共和党是否能找到人来作证说整件事是否被夸大了。

梅根·汤普森：就在今天早上，我们看到一条福克斯新闻新的民意测验。民意测验指出，49%的选民支持弹劾特朗普。我们是否有理由认为，国会的部分党派可能开始腐化了呢？

杰夫·格林菲尔德：我真的觉得，虽然特朗普在共和党内的支持率有小幅下滑，但依然高达78%。大家可以去了解一下共和党的参议员是冒着多大的风险来从事再次选举的工作的。他们可能想吸引更多温和的选民、对特朗普不那么讨厌的选民。但他们确实有冒着失去坚实选民基础的风险吗？所以，这部分党派问题可能会阻碍奇迹的诞生。还有一点：如果这件事要在一月份由参议院审议的话，就会有6名民主党参议员竞选总统。而他们要面对的是爱荷华州初选的高潮和新罕布什尔州初选的问题。而且我怀疑共和党领袖麦康奈尔应该会希望他们能助力。这是我认为党派会发挥作用的另一种方式。

梅根·汤普森：当然，这些都会需要有一定的媒介才会发生。我还想问您一个问题：从历史的角度看，过去一个世纪以来，每当我们考量弹劾调查的时候，经济、支持率等因素会发挥怎样的作用呢？

杰夫·格林菲尔德：第一次导致尼克松跌入万劫不复深渊的调查是在1974年，那时候，针对他的调查势头正猛，经济也开始衰退，股市也开始大跌。与之形成对比的是：上世纪90年代末，在比尔·克林顿的领导下，经济达到了跟整个20世纪比肩的高度。所以，他的支持率即便在弹劾期间也从未低于60%。考虑到该州的经济情况，特朗普的支持率比应该达到的水平低了一些。所以，应该说，如果未来数月内，事情要发生转变的话，如果经济要腾飞的话，那这会对特朗普保住选民基础成为真正的问题。

梅根·汤普森：好的，杰夫·格林菲尔德，非常感谢您参加本期节目。

杰夫·格林菲尔德：我的荣幸。