美国国家公共电台 NPR 二季度美国GDP大跌32.9%（在线收听）

We now have confirmation that shutting down the U.S. economy for a good part of the second quarter was very bad for business. In truth, we knew that, of course, but a number from the government makes it clear just how bad. It's an estimate of economic growth, or the lack of it, in the second quarter — April, May and June. You will recall that the country began shutting down in March and was pretty fully shut down — as close as it could be anyway — by April 1.

我们现在已经确认，在第二季度大部分时间里关闭美国经济对商业产生了极为不利的影响。事实上，我们当然已经知道这一点，但政府公布的数据明确说明了情况有多糟糕。该数据是对第二季度（即4月至6月）的经济增长或者说缺乏增长的估计。大家应该记得，美国从3月开始实施封锁，到4月1日基本已经完全关闭，时间相当接近。

NPR chief economics correspondent Scott Horsley is with us. Scott, good morning.

NPR新闻的首席经济记者斯科持·霍斯利将带来详细报道。斯科特，早上好。

SCOTT HORSLEY, BYLINE: Good morning, Steve.

斯科持·霍斯利连线：早上好，史蒂夫。

INSKEEP: What's the number you got?

因斯基普：你了解到的数据是什么？

HORSLEY: It's the sharpest contraction in postwar history, Steve — 32.9%. Now, that's a little bit misleading. GDP numbers are usually reported in annual rates as if the sharp contraction we saw in the second quarter was going to continue for a full year, and we don't expect that to happen. Nevertheless, it is about four times the worst quarter that we saw during the Great Recession more than a decade ago. Chief economist Nariman Behravesh of IHS Markit calls this a horrific GDP number.

霍斯利：史蒂夫，这是战后最剧烈的收缩，GDP暴跌32.9%。这一数字有些误导。国内生产总值（简称GDP）数据通常以年率报告，就好像我们在第二季度看到的急剧收缩会持续一整年一样，当然我们希望这种情况不会发生。不管怎样，下滑程度都是十多年前大萧条时期最糟糕季度的四倍。IHS Markit公司的首席经济学家纳里曼·贝赫拉维什称这是可怕的GDP数据。

NARIMAN BEHRAVESH: We've never seen anything quite like it.

纳里曼·贝赫拉维什：我们从未见过这样的事情。

HORSLEY: Now, this was led by a sharp drop in consumer spending. As you mentioned, restaurants and retailers closed their doors in a desperate fight to slow the spread of the virus. As sharp as the downturn was, though, it was also very short. By the end of the quarter, we did begin to see a resumption of economic activity. But to be sure, that recovery is fragile and incomplete.

霍斯利：这种情况由消费支出的大幅下降导致。如你刚才所说，在减缓病毒传播这场绝望的斗争中，餐厅和零售商纷纷关门停业。尽管经济衰退如此剧烈，但持续时间也很短暂。到第二季度末，我们已经开始看到经济活动复苏的迹象。但可以肯定的是，这种复苏非常脆弱而且也不完整。

Just this morning, we learned that another 1.4 million people applied for state unemployment benefits last week. That number was up slightly for the second week in a row. Claims for a special federal unemployment program for folks who ordinarily are not eligible were down a bit.

就在今天早上，我们得知上周又有140万人申请失业救济。这一数字已经连续第二周小幅上升。而申请联邦失业特别计划的人数则有所下降，这一计划面向的是通常不符合条件的民众。

INSKEEP: Well, that sets the stage for now. We're in the third quarter now, Scott — July, August, September. What do economists expect?

因斯基普：这是目前的情况。斯科特，现在是第三季度，即7月至9月。经济学家有何预期？

HORSLEY: A lot depends on what happens with the pandemic, and some businesses are more vulnerable than others. Behravesh described a kind of two-speed recovery, and you can hear that in some of the folks I've been talking with this week. Restaurant owner Cameron Mitchell — he likens this pandemic to a hurricane. He says what appeared to be a business rebound in June turned out to be only the eye of the storm, and now he's being buffeted again by gale-force winds.

霍斯利：这在很大程度上要取决于疫情形势，有些企业比其他企业更容易受到损害。贝赫拉维什描述了一种双速复苏，本周接受我采访的一些人都提到了这个词。餐馆老板卡梅隆·米切尔将这场疫情比作飓风。他说，6月份的商业反弹原来只是风暴眼，现在他再次遭遇强风的冲击。

CAMERON MITCHELL: The most prolonged, difficult operating environment I've ever been a leader in, and I've been in this business for 40 years.

卡梅隆·米切尔：这是我领导的最漫长、最困难的运营环境，我在这个行业已经40年了。

HORSLEY: Mitchell operates restaurants in 13 states, and he points to Florida as an example. His outlets there were almost back to normal in early June, but as infections took off, business dropped again. And that's true for a lot of businesses that depend on consumer traffic.

霍斯利：米切尔在13个州经营餐厅，他以佛罗里达州为例。6月初，他在佛州的餐厅几乎恢复正常，但随着感染人数的增加，营业额再次下滑。许多依赖消费者流量的店家也是如此。

INSKEEP: Well, which industries are doing well, then?

因斯基普：那哪些行业表现不错？

HORSLEY: Well, factories are picking up steam again. Construction crews are humming once more. So are dentists' offices, actually. About 450,000 people went back to work in dental offices in May and June.

霍斯利：工厂又恢复了活力。建筑工人也开始施工。还有牙医办公室。5月和6月，约45万人回到牙科诊所工作。

INSKEEP: Yeah.

因斯基普：好。

HORSLEY: In Michigan, hygienist Alexis Bailey says at first she was nervous about going back to work, but she got comfortable pretty quickly with the new safety precautions. And to her surprise, there was a lot of patients. The office has been booked solid.

霍斯利：密歇根州卫生学家亚历克西斯·贝利表示，一开始她对重返工作岗位感到紧张，但她很快就适应了新的安全预防措施。令人惊讶的是，病人很多。牙医诊所已被约满。

ALEXIS BAILEY: People missed getting their teeth cleaned. They want to catch up. I think people — every time they come in, they say, this has been nice to get out of the house and, you know, feel safe and talk to somebody.

亚历克西斯·贝利：人们错过了洗牙的时间。他们想补上。我认为，人们每次进来时都会说，走出家门的感觉很好，他们感到很安全，还可以和他人交谈。

INSKEEP: I get the impression, though, Scott, that people are still categorizing things as essential and nonessential. You got to get to the dentist eventually, but maybe you don't need to go out to the movies.

因斯基普：不过，斯科特，我有一种感觉，人们仍然会将事情分为必要的和非必要的。人们最终得去看牙医，但不必去电影院。

HORSLEY: And you might be more willing to put up with some safety precautions in the dentist's chair than you would be sitting at a fancy restaurant.

霍斯利：你可能更愿意在牙医的椅子上忍受一些安全预防措施，而不是坐在高级餐厅里。

We do know that, you know, spending has dropped, and that is keeping a lid on economic activity. And it was a decline in consumer spending that really led to that sharp contraction in the economy in the second quarter. It might have been even worse, though, were it not for the huge amount of federal spending and relief payments that went out. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said yesterday those $1,200 relief payments and the supplemental unemployment benefits have been an important lifeline keeping the economy afloat.

我们知道，支出下滑，这限制了经济活动。消费支出下降导致经济在第二季度出现大幅萎缩。不过，如果没有联邦支出和救济金的巨额支出，那情况可能会更加糟糕。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔昨天表示，1200美元的救济金和补充失业救济金是维持经济运行的重要生命线。

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JEROME POWELL: In a broad sense, it's been well spent. It's kept people in their homes. It's kept businesses in business. And that's all a good thing.

杰罗姆·鲍威尔：从广义上说，这笔资金用在了刀刃上。这使人们呆在家中。还使企业得以运营。这些都是好事。

HORSLEY: Now, of course, those supplemental unemployment benefits are expiring tomorrow, and Congress seems to be stuck as they try to figure out what kinds of additional support both families and businesses might need to keep the economy from sliding backwards again.

霍斯利：当然，这些补充救济金将于明天到期，而在试图弄清家庭和企业需要哪种额外支持以防止经济再次下滑方面，国会似乎陷入了困境。

INSKEEP: Scott, thanks so much. Really appreciate it.

因斯基普：斯科特，非常谢谢你。谢谢你带来的报道。

HORSLEY: My pleasure, Steve.

霍斯利：不客气，史蒂夫。

INSKEEP: That's NPR's Scott Horsley.

因斯基普：以上是NPR新闻的斯科特·霍斯利进行的报道。