时代周刊 筹划退休人群 如何应对意外风险(1)（在线收听）

Retiring minds want to know how to prepare for unexpected risks

筹划退休人群 如何应对意外风险

By Walter Updegrave

作者：沃特·阿普迪格雷夫

WHEN IT COMES TO RETIREMENT PLANNING, WE NATURALLY focus on the risks we’re most aware of—

筹划退休事宜时，我们通常会把注意力集中在我们最了解的风险上 -

for instance, the possibility that this nine-year-old bull market could give way to a ravaging bear.

比如，连续挺进了九年的牛市被惨不忍睹的熊市取代的可能性，

Or that an unscrupulous or incompetent adviser might talk us into bad investments.

或者，一个不择手段或毫无能力的顾问忽悠我们做出错误投资的可能性。

Here are three risks that may not be top of mind but that you should still guard against:

然而，下面这三种风险虽可能并没有被人们放在首位，但确实是你应该防范的：

1.COMPLACENCY RISK

1.自满风险

Maybe you set your savings rate early in your career when your budget was especially tight, and haven’t raised it since.

或许在职业生涯早期你就已经给自己定好了存钱的节奏，而那时你的预算还相当紧张，而之后你一直没有提高你的存钱节奏。

Or perhaps you were automatically signed up for your 401(k) at a default rate of 3% to 6% and you never increased it.

又或者您以默认的3％到6％的违约率签了401(k)退休福利计划但从来没有上调这一计划。

Still, aided by the double-digit market returns of recent years,

尽管如此，多亏了近几年高达两位数的市场回报率，

your retirement account balances seemed to be growing nicely,

你的退休账户余额才看起来涨得很快，

so you never bothered to gauge whether you were actually on pace to build an adequate nest egg.

以致于你从来没有花心思去算你是否真的能够往你的退休账户里存足够的钱。

In short, you have fallen prey to complacency risk.

简而言之，你已经成了自满风险的受害者。

You’ve let yourself be lulled into a false sense of security that you’re on the road to a secure retirement—

你已经让自己陷入了一种虚假的安全感，以为自己正在走向安全的退休之路 -

or at least making reasonable progress toward that goal—

至少以为自己在实现这一目标方面取得了合理的进展 -

while in reality you may be well short of where you need to be.

而实际上，你可能远远落后于你需要达到的水平。

The best way to protect against this risk is to periodically give yourself a retirement checkup.

要防止这种风险，最好的办法就是定期检查自己的退休账户。

Go to a retirement income calculator

找一个退休收入计算器

and plug in information such as your income, the current value of your retirement accounts,

输入自己的收入，退休账户的当前余额，

how much you’re saving each year and the age at which you plan to retire.

每年存了多少钱以及你计划退休的年龄等信息。

The tool will estimate your probability of achieving your goal.

工具就能估算出您实现目标的可能性。

If the tool estimates your chances at less than 80%,

如果估计出来的可能性低于80％，

then you need to make some adjustments, such as saving more, investing differently,

那你就需要做一些调整，比如多存钱，改变投资方式，

scaling back your planned retirement lifestyle or a combination of these things.

缩减您计划的退休后的生活方式，或者多种措施同时实行。