时代周刊 筹划退休人群 如何应对意外风险(2)（在线收听）

2.EMOTIONAL RISK

2.情绪风险

This risk tends to be highest during periods of market extremes,

往往市场波动极大时这种风险最大，

when emotion and impulse are more likely to affect our investing decisions.

那时，情绪和冲动更容易左右我们的投资决策。

But whether it’s getting overly excited when stocks are on a tear or too pessimistic when the market is taking a beating,

然而，无论是股市一路高歌时得意忘形，还是股市陷入低迷时消沉悲观，

letting your emotions sway your investing strategy can inflict real damage on your retirement prospects.

让情绪左右投资决策都会给你的退休前景造成重大伤害。

One way to manage this risk is to set—and then preferably put in writing, so you’ll be more likely to stick to it—an asset allocation strategy

管控这种风险的办法之一就是定一个资产配置策略 - 最好以书面形式，这样更有可能坚持下去 -

that will increase your chances of being able to ride out stocks’ ups and downs without reacting rashly to them.

让你更好地驾驭股票涨落而不是草率地做决定。

A risk-tolerance asset-allocation tool like the free version Vanguard offers can help you come up with such an asset mix.

能够承受风险的Vanguard免费版本等资产配置工具就可以帮助你研究出这样的资产组合。

Whatever stocks-bonds blend you ultimately decide on, make sure you rebalance occasionally

无论你最终决定选择怎样的股票债券组合比例，都务必时不时地重新调整您的组合比例，

to ensure that gains or losses in different holdings don’t cause your portfolio to stray too far from your target mix.

确保多种投资项目产生的收益或损失不会让您的投资组合偏离目标组合太远。

3.LONGEVITY RISK

3.长寿风险

You might think that this risk—

你可能认为这种风险 -

which is essentially the possibility that you could live much longer and spend a lot more time in retirement than expected—

大致就是你的寿命比预料的更长，因而退休时间也更长的可能性 -

would be an issue only after you retire.

只会在你退休之后才出现。

The danger, of course, is that if you underestimate how long you might live (as many people do),

其危险性当然在于你要是低估了自己了自己的寿命（其实很多人都这样）

you might spend down your nest egg too quickly and outlive your savings.

你就可能很快花完自己的退休基金而自己还活着。

But longevity risk can also come into play during your working years.

问题是，长寿风险可能在你未退休之际就开始发挥作用。

If you assume you need to save enough during your career to support you for 20 years after you leave your job,

如果您觉得自己需要在退休之前存够能在退休后养活自己20年的钱，

and you actually end up living 25 or 30 years in retirement,

而你实际上的退休时间为25或30年，

you’re not going to accumulate nearly enough savings to maintain your pre-retirement standard of living throughout your post-career life.

那你存的钱就无法让你在退休之后继续维持退休前的生活水平。

It’s impossible to know exactly when you’re going to shuffle off this mortal coil.

我们无法准确知道我们何时才会撒手人寰。

But you can get a more realistic sense of how long you may be around by going to the Actuaries Longevity Illustrator.

但是，你可以访问Actuaries Longevity Illustrator网站，对自己可能会活多久有一个更切实际的认识。

With these estimates in hand, you will be able to better assess how much you ought to be saving during your career

有了这些判断，你就可以更好地确定自己在退休前需要存钱的数额，

and how much you can safely afford to spend once you’re retired.

以及自己在退休能能够承受的消费水平。

Of course, you won’t entirely eliminate longevity risk.

当然了，大家并不能彻底规避掉长寿风险。

But you’ll be much better equipped to deal with it.

但你还是可以更好地应对这一风险。