时代周刊:中美之间的一场意志较量(2)（在线收听）

On April 2, we saw China’s first response:

4月2日，我们看到了中国的第一轮反应:

tariffs on 128 goods from the U.S. worth $3 billion, with the threat of more to come,

宣布对来自美国的128种，总价值30亿美元的商品征收关税，还威胁说后续还会有更多关税，

as a reply to the initial steel and aluminum gambit.

作为对当初美国针对中国征收钢铝关税的回应。

The proportionate response from Beijing signaled

北京方面的相应回应表明，

that China doesn’t want a fight but won’t back down if Trump escalates.

中国无意挑起纷争，但如果特朗普得寸进尺，中国就绝不退缩。

On April 3, the Trump Administration revealed its list

4月3日，特朗普政府公布了

of recommended Chinese products to target in his broader tariff proposal–including more than 1,300 of them.

特朗普广泛征税的提案中他建议征税的中国产品清单——共计1300多种。

On April 4, China sharply upped the stakes, with tariffs on U.S. goods worth about $50 billion.

4月4日，中国加大了赌注，将征收关税的美国商品规模提高到了500亿美元。

There is a risk of further escalation,

时态还可能进一步恶化，

because both sides believe they hold the stronger hand.

因为双方都认为占上风的是自己一方。

Trump knows that China’s economy is susceptible to trade action,

特朗普知道，中国的经济很容易受到贸易方面的牵制，

since it depends on it more than the U.S. does.

因为它比美国更依赖贸易。

According to the World Bank, 37% of China’s GDP comes from trade–

世界银行的数据显示，中国37%的GDP都来自贸易——

though that’s down from more than 65% in 2006–vs. 27% for the U.S.

尽管这一比例比2006年的65%已经有所下降，而美国的GDP只有27%来自贸易。

That creates a vulnerability for China.

这给中国造成了一个软肋。

But Trump is more politically vulnerable than Xi.

但特朗普在政治上比习脆弱。

It’s not an accident that among the U.S. goods targeted by China are ginseng and pork,

中国这次将征税矛头对准人参和猪肉之类的商品并非偶然，

products that will hurt farmers and business owners in states like Wisconsin and Iowa,

因为这些产品会影响到威斯康辛州和爱荷华州的农民和企业主，

which are essential for Trump’s re-election bid in 2020.

而这群人对特朗普2020年的连任竞选有着至关重要的作用。

Trump will hear more public criticism for these moves than Xi will.

这些举措给特朗普带来的民众批评之声势必盖过给习带来的批评之声。

There are no swing states in China.

因为中国没有民意摇摆不定的“摇摆州”。

Beijing’s second round of tariffs targets many U.S. goods,

北京的第二轮关税将矛头对准了更多的美国商品，

including cars, orange juice and soybeans–a product that accounts for trade worth $14 billion per year.

比如汽车、橙汁和大豆——这些产品每年给美国带来的贸易额高达140亿美元。

This will have an even greater pocketbook effect on Trump’s base.

这一举措将从财政上进一步撼动特朗普的根基。

And this is just the beginning.

而这还仅仅是个开始。

Trump wants U.S. companies to have greater access to China’s vast marketplace.

川普希望美国的企业能够更多地进入中国这个巨大的市场。

He wants a much lower trade deficit–and a political win.

他想要降低赤字——同时夺取政治胜利。

China needs access to the technologies that can help its economy make the leap

而中国需要从制造业巨头到尖端工业创造者那里

from manufacturing powerhouse to cutting-edge creator of industries

获得能够帮助其经济实现飞跃的技术，

and jobs that flow from advances in artificial intelligence, robotics and advanced microchips.

需要人工智能、机器人技术和先进微芯片的发展带来的就业机会。

The U.S. may win some concessions on market access,

美国在市场准入方面或许能赢得一些让步，

but China won’t end the practice of forcing U.S. companies to share technology as the price of admission.

但中国不会结束强迫美国公司以分享技术作为准入条件的做法。

Whatever happens next, it’s clear that the Mar-a-Lago moment is long gone.

无论接下来发生什么，很明显，马阿拉戈庄园里的那个时刻早已经一去不复返了。