时代周刊:穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼兜售分裂中东计划(3)（在线收听）

Yet since September, the crown prince has sent dozens of nonviolent clerics and Islamic intellectuals to prison,

然而，自去年9月以来，这位王储已经将数十名非暴力神职人员和伊斯兰知识分子投入了监狱，

leading current and former U.S. officials to question whether his talk of reform masks a crackdown on dissent.

多位现任及前任美国官员纷纷开始质疑，他的改革言论背后是否还藏着他对异见人士的镇压。

"More people today probably feel better about their country, particularly young people," says a former top White House official.

“如今，感觉自己的祖国已经变得更好了的人，尤其是年轻人，已经越来越多了，”一位前白宫高级官员表示。

"But people have suffered, and the political repression has not lightened up. This is not a democratic reform."

“但民众是遭过罪的，政治压迫也并没有比过去减轻。可见本·萨拉曼的改革并不是民主改革。”

In the U.S., bin Salman has found some important supporters, though,

尽管如此，本·萨勒曼还是在美国拉到了一些重要的支持者，

including President Donald Trump and his influential son-in-law Jared Kushner.

比如总统唐纳德·特朗普和他颇有影响力的女婿贾里德·库什纳。

The President has not only pursued a tighter alliance with the kingdom and embraced it as a bulwark against a surging Iran;

总统不仅竭力紧密与沙特的联盟关系，将其视为防御伊朗崛起的堡垒；

he has also invested deeply in the crown prince personally, tweeting reassurances through a string of controversies.

还对王储投入了很深的个人感情，在王储陷入一连串的争议时上推特为他发表安抚言论。

If White House support were enough to gain backing for his reforms,

如果白宫的支持已经足以帮他实现改革的话，

bin Salman would not have proceeded from Washington to Boston, New York City, Seattle, Silicon Valley, Beverly Hills and Dallas.

本·萨尔曼就不可能离开华盛顿再去波士顿、纽约、西雅图、硅谷、贝弗利山和达拉斯。

The question is whether others will buy what the White House has signed on for.

问题是，白宫表态支持了，其他人会不会买账。

"Is this a savvy transaction by a young guy who knows his country has to change,

这究竟是一个知道自己的国家必须改变却还想继续保持严格的专制统治的年轻人

but who intends to maintain strict and authoritarian control at home,

提出来的一笔精明的买卖呢，

or is this a transformation that will fundamentally alter the American conception of Saudi Arabia? "

还是一场将从根本上改变美国对沙特阿拉伯的印象的变革呢?”

asks Aaron David Miller, a longtime State Department official now at the Woodrow Wilson Center.

曾在国务院长期任职，现在伍德罗·威尔逊中心工作的亚伦·戴维·米勒问道。

"When I was at the State Department, we prayed for a leader like this.

“在国务院的时候，我们还盼着沙特能出现这样一位领导人。

(But) beware of wishing something you don't really want."

(只是)对你并不是真正想要的东西许愿可得留神啊。”

UPON THE DEATH or abdication of bin Salman's father,

本·萨勒曼的父亲离世或退位后，

the throne will skip an entire generation—hundreds of middle-aged princes—and fall to him.

王位将跳过整整一代人——数百名已经步入中年的王子——最终落到他的头上。

The crown prince is a man in a hurry.

王储是个急性子。

"I don't want to waste my time," he says. "I am young."

“我不想浪费时间，”他说。“因为我还很年轻。”

The dire condition of the kingdom kindly accommodated his impatience.

在王国现在面临的严峻形势下，王储的急躁情绪显得稍微情有可原了。

By 2015, when the crown reached bin Salman's father, the Saudi oil economy was running on fumes.

2015年本·萨勒曼父亲继承王位之时，沙特的石油经济已经奄奄一息。

The price of a barrel, which Saudis had projected to remain at at least $100 a barrel, had fallen to $50,

曾预计至少将维持在每桶100美元的油价跌至每桶50美元，

and immense cash reserves stood a few years from exhaustion.

当时还有巨额的准备金能勉强支撑几年。

At the same time, the U.S., having edged closer to energy independence with natural gas and oil shale,

与此同时，随着天然气和油页岩的开采，美国已经逐渐接近能源独立，

no longer needed Riyadh the way it once did, and was noticeably less attentive.

已经不再像过去那样需要利雅得了，对沙特也明显不那么在意了。

More worrying still, President Barack Obama, unlike other past Presidents, was willing to engage persistently with Iran, the Saudis' chief nemesis.

更令人担忧的是，美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马，与以往历届总统不同，愿意保持和沙特的头号宿敌伊朗的接触。

Iran, despite remaining a thorn in Washington's side, was aligned with the U.S. in its desire

因为尽管伊朗那时仍是华盛顿的眼中钉，但它和美国一样，

to destroy ISIS, the Sunni extremists who executed Americans on camera and used Saudi textbooks in their schools.

也渴望摧毁ISIS这群公然在镜头前处决美国人，在学校使用沙特的教科书的逊尼派极端分子。